There seem to be enough mitigating factors to suggest that Uncle Mo will not be completely up against it in the Kentucky Derby despite the deafening distance questions following his collapse inside the final furlong in his first try at 1 1/8 miles. For one, he certainly has to be expected to move forward in his third start off a four-month layoff. Also, he's still the fastest two-turn horse based on his Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Getting that speed to carry another 3/16 mile is a legitimate concern, though, obviously.
Here are some other thoughts and observations from the weekend:
- The Factor is the pro tem leader of the division, but that seems to be more a "He's the most likely superstar of the group if all goes well" opinion than a "He's my top pick to win the Derby." We'll learn more about him in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday at Oaklawn.
- Speaking of that race, I haven't completely given up on Sway Away, and he remains in my top five despite a lackluster Rebel. If he shows up in a big way on Saturday then I could see him being my pick come May 7.
- Speaking of sons of Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby, I'm not in the uncomfortable position of having to acknowledge that Elite Alex is a threat in this crop. It's not that he's run amazing, but given what we've seen the past month, he's certainly run well enough to fit among this group.
- Many people who have done it better than me have written about the highs and lows in this game, so rather than reheat that particular skillet, I will offer an anecdote that illustrates it: On Friday afternoon, a despondent H. Graham Motion walked in solitude near the Paddock Bar on the ground floor of Keeneland. His Pluck had just finished off the board for the second consecutive time. He was clearly disappointed. Flash forward 24 hours later, and Motion is 750 miles away in Queens celebrating winning the Wood Memorial with Toby's Corner. Depending on how things go for the trainer in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, he could have three horses in the country's most prestigious race (though Motion has said that he values the Breeders' Cup as much as the Triple Crown).
- On the Lexington food front, Village Host pizza—a new place on Old Vine where Bar None (a tee-totaling sports bar) used to be—is terrible. I gave it a D+. Others in my party gave it an "F" and "D-". Lexington certainly isn't known for its pizza, but Village Host could change all that. Now Lexington can be known for its bad pizza.
I agree with you about Baffert's colt The Factor. He just might be peaking at the right time. We will see what happens to Sway Away and The Factor this weekend.
ReplyDeleteA step in the right direction by ELITE ALEX would please me. He is my Derby future colt at 30/1.
ReplyDeleteWhile our focus is on "what happened to UNCLE MO?" TOBY'S CORNER's trip in the Wood leaves him battle tested. He has proven that he can mix it up with others and keep on running. If UNCLE MO still deserves Derby consideration, so does his conqueror.
Extremely satisfied by hometown pizza, I seldom discover any better than a C- on the road. However, my home turf doesn't produce "brats" like those that I've sampled trackside at Keeneland. Chances are that they will be the only sure bets that I encounter if I make it to Lexington next week.
Jackson Bend had the top BSF at 2 turns last year based on his two year old form. How did that work out for him in the Derby?
ReplyDeleteUncle Mo has a different action than last year, has obviously underwent some kind of minor surgery over the winter (probably had bone chips cleared from a swollen joint) and has not come back like they thought he would. Secret surgeries in Florida under the guise of R and R happen all of the time--some horses come back...others are never the same. This would explain the pathetically weak prep regiment and kid gloves by Pletcher.
There are rumors at all the tracks and training facilities down here in Florida that Mo underwent surgery in Ocala over the winter and it was very hush hush. That is more than a rumor to a buddy of mine who has an in-law that works where Mo had his surgery. Mo has not just regressed from his two year old form, he has fallen 20 points backwards. That NEVER happens in a top fight racehorse unless soundness issues are involved. You know this...
Mo is obviously not the same horse. Two BSFs at right about 90. Let's get real...I hope he comes back into form, but am bitterly dismayed at Pletcher and Repole for not coming clean to the public about what really went on with Uncle Mo in Florida under the guise of R and R!