Along those lines, I missed the boat on Premier Pegasus. I definitely should have had him in my top ten before the San Felipe based on two-year-old form, pedigree, and a good third off the layoff behind two horses I like. Kudos to the believers out there who cashed a ridiculously overlaid $16+ win mutuel.
Other thoughts:
- Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher said it best when he said, "[Uncle Mo] came into [the Timely Writer] the Kentucky Derby favorite, and that hasn't changed." I'm all for going against a favorite when warranted, and there's a better than good chance that Uncle Mo will be underlaid to win the Derby, but for now to suggest that any other horse but him is the leader of the American three-year-old division is really grasping at straws/trying to overthink it/being a wiseguy
- If any horse from the Tampa Bay Derby wins another graded stake it might be Beamer who certainly plods along for now but seems capable of going on with it whereas the others in the race definitely seemed to have achieved their ceiling. I'm no Drosselmeyer fan, but that's the vibe I get from his style. I guess Free Entry can end up being OK, but not showing up to that race is going to be hard to forgive for awhile unless the price justifies it.
- Back to Uncle Mo, can we please stop saying that he has no chance of "getting the distance" in the Derby? Whatever that means. How do you not "get a distance"? I've yet to see a horse just stop running at a certain point. Is 1 1/4 Uncle Mo's best distance? Maybe not. Is it conceivable that a good race from him at 1 1/4 miles (as opposed to a great race at 1 1/16 miles) is still good enough to win? Of course. Indian Charlie finished third in the Derby, and the two horses in front of him were both eventual champions. He also has a graded stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles.
- I can see Jaycito impressing in his next start, but he's virtually an automatic underlay in the Derby given his connections and buzz surrounding him. He's just way too out of his races early for me to see him as a factor in the Derby, though I guess Mine That Bird shows that you can come from the clouds.
- Back to Tampa Bay Downs, I've gotten the track and its staunch supporters a hard time about its popularity, referring to it as the "Pabst of racetracks", but the joint just gets it right. I got to the track at 10:30 a.m. on Tampa Bay Derby day, and while, yeah, it's easy to put your best foot forward on the biggest day, it all seemed to genuine, and the fans there were very much into each race and enjoying the overall experience. I can't elevate it above Ellis Park, but neither can I ever dis anyone who raves about it.
- Those who think the Kentucky Derby needs to introduce a human element to determining the 20 starters each year need look no further than the NCAA men's basketball championship tournament for proof positive that people not only get stuff like this wrong but also mess it up more than any strict numbers system ever could.
- Here's my Triple Crown poll for the week of March 14
- Uncle Mo
- Sway Away
- Stay Thirsty
- Jaycito
- Premier Pegasus
- Silver Medallion
- Santiva
- Soldat
- Rogue Romance
- The Factor
"get the distance" very good point-Yet another stupid think people throw in a sentence to make them sound smart.
ReplyDeleteGenerally enjoy the blog, but the pet peeve about the innocuous "getting the distance" is misplaced, to say the least.
ReplyDeleteIt's a simple straightforward way to say exactly what you finally said about Mo - that a given distance may not be the horse's best.
Get over y'self, Ed:-).
Anon: I agree that I have excessive angst related to "get the distance" comments.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Uncle Mo specifically, I could see a scenario where 1 1/2 miles actually benefits him because he can control the race so easily. The Derby will be another animal because of 20 horses, etc., but I hope they try the Belmont with him this year.