The Tampa Bay Derby card at Tampa Bay Downs today is officially a skullbuster.
Competitive races with vulnerable favorites is a great recipe for making it rain, but variance is a bitch, and while it's exciting to think about stringing together consecutive 10-to-1 overlays, even if the true odds on those 10-to-1 horses are 4-to-1, they'll still only win both their races 4% of the time (24-to-1).
Still, the pools will be deep, and I have to take some shots today especially considering I think both Pluck and Brethren are beatable in the win spot.
Free Entry will be my key to the day. I see him as more likely to win the Tampa Bay Derby than Brethren, and he'll be twice the price. I'm going to build my pick four around him.
Pluck is not as vulnerable as Brethren but is still a very likely underlay considering Mister Pippit appears capable of running with him. I really liked what I saw in that maiden win, and he gets six pounds.
Elsewhere on the card, #4 in race 3, Wildcat Miss, should benefit from the class relief and has the speed to control this race.
In race 5, turf trainer heavies H. Graham Motion and Christophe Clement each have a formidable entry, but #1 Cougar At Heart and #2 Vivo Per Lei could get the jump on those, as the turf course stretch is only an eighth of a mile.
In race 6, #7 Great Notion comes in off a big win, and I love the sire's progeny stretching out to the longer sprints. 12-to-1 ML seems more than fair.
Race 8 looks extremely difficult to me, so why not look to a 20-to-1 ML horse to offer some value? #9 Pay the Man flamed out off a two-month layoff, but if he needed that race then he can run with these.
Here's my Steve Crist-style ABC grid for the day.
Competitive races with vulnerable favorites is a great recipe for making it rain, but variance is a bitch, and while it's exciting to think about stringing together consecutive 10-to-1 overlays, even if the true odds on those 10-to-1 horses are 4-to-1, they'll still only win both their races 4% of the time (24-to-1).
Still, the pools will be deep, and I have to take some shots today especially considering I think both Pluck and Brethren are beatable in the win spot.
Free Entry will be my key to the day. I see him as more likely to win the Tampa Bay Derby than Brethren, and he'll be twice the price. I'm going to build my pick four around him.
Pluck is not as vulnerable as Brethren but is still a very likely underlay considering Mister Pippit appears capable of running with him. I really liked what I saw in that maiden win, and he gets six pounds.
Elsewhere on the card, #4 in race 3, Wildcat Miss, should benefit from the class relief and has the speed to control this race.
In race 5, turf trainer heavies H. Graham Motion and Christophe Clement each have a formidable entry, but #1 Cougar At Heart and #2 Vivo Per Lei could get the jump on those, as the turf course stretch is only an eighth of a mile.
In race 6, #7 Great Notion comes in off a big win, and I love the sire's progeny stretching out to the longer sprints. 12-to-1 ML seems more than fair.
Race 8 looks extremely difficult to me, so why not look to a 20-to-1 ML horse to offer some value? #9 Pay the Man flamed out off a two-month layoff, but if he needed that race then he can run with these.
Here's my Steve Crist-style ABC grid for the day.
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