A different kind of handicapping: doping out the top horses at a 2yo sale

I'm in Ocala to cover the OBS March selected two-year-olds in training sale, and a key component of Thoroughbred Times coverage since the launch of the TODAY has been to provide a short list highlighting prospective big prices at each of the major sales.

As the chief correspondent at this year's sale, that role has fallen to me, and I'd be lying if I said it were anything but a daunting task that has caused me more anxiety and second guessing than any race I've ever handicapped.

The goal here is not to pick a winner, of course, but the horses who will bring the highest prices. Determining that is an exercise in bloodstock calculus because there are so many moving parts that go into making a top horse in a sale with a catalog this deep. Pedigree, on-track performance, and conformation are of course part of the equation, but the whims of the market also play a role. What buyers are looking for can change with each hip through the ring and trying to forecast what will produce the perfect storm to generate the top 3% of prices in a 500-head sale was no easy task.

But we gave it a go, and unlike handicapping a horse race, I sought information from many people, knowing they know much more than I do about all the aforementioned variables that affect price.

Those who subscribe to Thoroughbred Times and receive the TODAY can follow my progress as the sale kicks off at 11 a.m. EDT on Tuesday. I am most confident in hip 226, a Street Sense colt, making noise, and I think that there will be more fireworks on the second day of the sale than the first.

I'm really enjoying learning more about this aspect of the business. I've certainly enjoyed covering some mixed and yearling sales through the years, but this is definitely an animal all its own, and of course I do hope that some of this on-the-job training also leads to some nice payoffs in two-year-old maiden races when some of these babies start running for real!