If this were five years ago, then a look at the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) would have a lot more "for sale" signs attached to them.
Before Jess Jackson made big splashes with the private purchases (in partnership) of Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Curlin in 2007, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum's Darley and his family's Godolphin operations were also known for big ticket acquisitions of top Triple Crown and/or stallion prospects.
For myriad reasons, that era is over, and a quick look at the top contenders this year and the lack of ownership changes among this crop illustrates that.
Michael Ryan owns El Camino Real Derby (G3) winner Silver Medallion, and when I spoke to him following that win, he made no bones about his horse being for sale. Had this been the aforementioned era of the mid to latter years of the first decade of the 21st century, I have very little doubt that Ryan would have sold his Badge of Silver colt after his maiden win at Saratoga let alone still holding on to him through multiple stakes wins in SoCal.
The chart below lists the top 15 Triple Crown contenders, the owner, the sire, and where the sire stands. The last column is my feeling for how the owner would likely sell his prospect. For those listed as stallion rights, the expectation is that the prospect would always race in the current owner's colors. Those listed as "racing" are those who in another era would already have been sold to race for another owner.
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Ed, I could not disagree with you more. Please give us something specific about your comment "For myriad reasons, that era is over". You have only 6 horses listed as racing which mean in your opinion those are the only one's that could have been sold in a different era.I agree with you on that point as most of those owners would never sell, this is why they are in the business. So let's look at those 6 horses under your racing category:
ReplyDeleteSoldat, Mucho Macho Man and Gourmet Dinner have already been sold.
Soldat: A big percentage of him was sold privatly for Big money after his Alw. win on Jan 21st at Gulfstream Park
Mucho Macho Man: He was sold privately and transfered to Tim Ritvo, now Kathy Ritvo his Spouse.
Gourmet Dinner: They just sold 75% of him for Big money after his last race.
That leaves only 3 others on your list and they all have legitimate reasons why they are not sold:
Silver Medallion: Two reasons not sold< 1.Nobody wants to buy off of Steve Asmussen 2. Nobody thinks he is a dirt horse.
Sway Away: They have him priced for 3-4 times what he is worth and he has not run further than 7F. He is also about as ugly a horse as they come.
Santiva: Horse/Owners have already been kicked out of two barns you really think he is for sale?
So what are you talking about? everybody still has Derby fever and now the even the KY Oaks fever has hit a new level with owners.
Anon: Of course transactions still take place and Derby fever is alive and well.
ReplyDeleteBut to suggest that this era of wheeling & dealing is similar to what we saw from the late 90s through 2009 is just plain wrong.
That is a pretty weak response. I just shot down your whole argument. Again, I ask you to give anything specific to back up your position. How is my position wrong? Please explain.
ReplyDeleteMy chart backs my position. The ownership group of top 3yos has diversified considerably, and those owners have come across their charges much more organically.
ReplyDeleteI guess nobody reads this blog? Your whole opinion is blowing up within a few days of your blog, I sure would like to hear someone elses opinion.
ReplyDeleteA majority interest in Silver Medallion, the El Camino Real Derby winner, was sold Thursday to Blackrock Racing Partners, a partnership headed by oil entrepreneur Steve Marshall, according to both Marshall and Michael Ryan, who previously owned 100 percent of the colt.
“I’ve sold a little over 50 percent,” Ryan, a bloodstock agent based in Kentucky, said from Ocala, Fla., where he is attending a 2-year-old sale. “The horse will remain with Steve Asmussen.”
Marshall, the managing partner of the oil firm Western Energy Capital, said his share of Silver Medallion would race as Blackrock Stables.
Anon: The Silver Medallion sale supports my point. That horse has been sale for months, and even after a flashy win in a graded stakes still took weeks to sell and even then only for about 50%.
ReplyDeleteFive years ago, he'd have been worth millions and sold before they took his picture in the winner's circle.
Anonymous, you're wrong, and foolish.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom line in racing circa 2011 is that there is no greater single factor escalating the slow demise of the sport than the scores of middle-men which inflated sale and expense costs can no longer support. Those giant yearling prices which were so common place in the mid 1980's brought forth a time period during which everybody and his mother stepped into the void while trying to carve out a piece of the pie for himself.
(when yearlings are bred or bought for $25K and later sold for $1 Mil. plus there is plenty of room for some schmoe to earn $40K a year)
Indeed there are still handfuls of million-plus yearlings, but the broad average has basically tanked, and it is only from the average which middle-men can anticipate their piece of the pie with any confidence. In economic hard times, the first people to go are those who contribute little or nothing to the bottom line. The people complaining most loudly in racing today ARE these middle men who collectively possess no greater assets than their sense of entitlement.
In reality there is little reason why the price of horse flesh need differ significantly from that of ping pong balls. Present day horse racing has created a scenario in which horsemen, each time they spend an extra $100 on horse flesh, are further exacerbating the problem rather than moving toward a solution. Investing in horse flesh is purely speculative, unlike, say, crude oil, which can actually be used by consumers. (when was the last time you saw a Thoroughbred race horse pulling a plow?) Many who have been speculating in horse flesh for a good, long time have yet to ever know an era of commodity prices which are not only deflated, but which offer no foreseeable way out. Those conditions are quite normal for just about every other commodity out there, and yet those running the racing industry truly haven't ever known racing at a time where the market was truly flat. Well the market for horse flesh is trending downward by leaps and bounds and at the present trajectory the industry WILL reach fire sale prices and economic crisis.
Consider that, some years back, one of racing's supposed "answers" to these negative trends was to create the NTRA. That mentality was and is destined for failure in that it is only one more set of "middle men" adding to the problem rather than solving anything.
Sure, the NTRA is great... (for those on the payroll of the NTRA... who effectively just put their hands out. Racing, in its desperation, has opted to put coins in their hands for a while).
Horse racing, as presented in North America, has for a long while been surfing on no greater substance than its own sense of entitlement. The individual race venues do exactly nothing for their customers. They offer somebody else's (the horsemen, who are doing all the work to put it on) show and let that run endlessly to draw what little interest there is in being present. The individual race venues do relatively nothing for state coffers (unlike 30 years ago). The main thing that horse racing has going for it is that old, male minds are still challenged by the considerable detail involved when showing up at what could otherwise be an empty parking lot whereon various horse owners race their animals against one another.
If the parking lot itself would start doing something for those who still bother to show up, beyond just passing the hat while feeling 'entitled' to a contribution, then and only then could racing reverse the trends.
At any rate, like Ed says here: those days of haphazard and wild spending on horse flesh (just to create a window for various middle-men to choke the system) are effectively gone.
~Mr. T.