I want to thank The Knight Sky for his timely comment because value has become a dirty word to me in that many people (who should know better) misuse it.
Basically, HIGHER ODDS DOES NOT EQUAL VALUE
Having a 20-to-1 horse finish behind an even money favorite does not automatically "add value to the exacta." If that exacta has a 5% chance of occurring but pays $35 for $2 then it's an underlay and does not offer value.
For those craps players out there, saying an underlay "adds value to the exacta" (or any bet) is akin to saying that hitting a hard way adds value to your point. The casino makes more money when you bet the hard ways than when you stick to the (don't) pass line with full odds, and similarly you lose money in the long run when wagering on underlays.
Far too many people "try to beat the favorite for value." It's become ridiculously out of vogue to pick favorites as if the arbitrary distinction of ranking first by win dollars automatically makes a horse an underlay. If you assess a horse as having a 50% chance of winning a race, but he's 2-to-1 then that is tremendous value!
So don't be afraid of favorites, and don't just add high-priced horses willy-nilly to your exotics hoping for value. Sure, it's nice to hit boxcars for 30-to-1 until you remember that the odds of that happening were one in 36.
Interesting that I get a shout out for stating the obvious. :)
ReplyDeleteAs a vertical bettor I find myself often pairing a legitimate favorite or a low odds second choice with an also ran in the 2nd or third slot. But that also ran is almost always held at 8/1 or more in the win pool.
While the exacta "will pays" help, the blind trifecta pools demand the handicapper to find the overlooked horse perhaps 10/1 or more.
The vast majority in the audience cannot handicap for two or more horses in the same race. And that is one reason why the exacta-trifecta-superfecta-Hi Five pools have been priced prohibitively (or I should say counterproductively), upwards of 20 to 30%.
Higher raw dollars does not mean an overlay.
Finding overlays is the whole purpose of handicapping and wagering. Without overlays, the professional bettor is not going to the windows.
It's a sad time to be a win-place-show bettor. While each track with their field sizes will create their own "optimal takeout rate", I'm quite sure that is near the 10% mark.
This is the first step to revitalizing the pools as it helps newcomers as well as makes it fashionable for the experienced bettors to use bankroll methods such as Fractional Kelly.