Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Lifting the lid at Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park opens today, and I'm excited.
I feel as if this is the meeting that most narrows the focus on the Kentucky Derby. Sure, we're still 122 days away from the First Saturday in May, but any day can be a Triple Crown preview day at Gulfstream.
In 2008, eventual three-year-old male champion Big Brown made his seasonal debut on a Wednesday, and it was a Sunday in 2010 when eventual Grade 1 winners Drosselmeyer and Prince Will I Am finished one-two in a first-level allowance race.
If this year's opening day card is to feature superstars at that level then they're most likely to exit the featured eighth race, the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes for three-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the dirt.
It's a compact field of only six, but four are stakes winners, including my pick, #5 Quantum Miss, a Smoke Glacken filly who is the 2-to-1 second choice on the morning line. She won the Blue Mountain Stakes for Pennsylvania breds by 16 lengths last out and has won both her starts since losing her career debut. She showed in her maiden win that she can press a fast pace, and I expect a similar trip--and outcome--here.
#6 Roxy Gap is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and a likely underlay given the 4 1/2-month layoff and turning back to try dirt for the first time (not that Indian Charlies have any issues with dirt). Still, she won a high-dollar allowance race going longer last time, and I wonder if this isn't more a prep. As the fourth choice on the morning line, #2 It's Me Mom could offer some value racing second off a layoff with the initial dirt try out of the way.
Gulfstream offers a smorgasbord of pick N wagering opportunities this meeting with rolling $1 pick threes, a pair of $.50 pick fours, a $.50 pick five, and a dime pick six modeled after the Fortune 6 at Beulah Park, which pays the jackpot only if there is one winning ticket.
With expected scratches, I can play my "A" selections in the pick six for less than $50 so I might do it on a lark, but I'll probably mostly focus on the pick 4s (races 2-5 & 6-9) and the pick five (races 5-9).
I expect my best bet of the day to be in the second race where #2 Fundit is 4-to-1 on the morning line and would be worth every bit of half that price. Other horses of interest are #4 Austons Sure Cure in race 5 and #9 Winter's Fury in race 9.
To view a complete list of ABC rankings, click here.

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