The 2010 live foal report confirmed recent projections of smaller crop sizes by noting that reports for 2010 are down 14.2% compared to the reporting period last year. The 2010 crop is likely to be the smallest since 1977, which included Genuine Risk.
We'll know more about the 2011 crop when The Jockey Club releases its report of mares bred for 2010, but I can't imagine an increase.
All that means that the horses who hit the racetrack in 2012 will be among the smallest crop in decades, and '13 and beyond is likely to offer similar sizes.
This translates into an opportunity for racing to address two of its major problems: race date inflation and drugs.
As for race dates, less is typically more, and a vast reduction in foal crop means that year-round racing in Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, Louisiana, Florida, North and South California, Pennsylvania New York, Maryland, and West Virginia is unneeded. New York and maybe Pennsylvania will have to race year round just to give away that slots money, but other than that, all those other states should take some time off.
There will NOT be the horseflesh to support a viable product in many jurisdictions, and now is the time to be thinking about circuits, shared incentives, and the like.
As for drugs, American racing is an international laughingstock when it comes to this topic. With the Keeneland September yearling sale going in full force there has been a lot of talk regarding the marketability of American pedigrees on an international stage, but not a lot of talk regarding how the decline of American bloodstock could be related to our lax drug policies here.
Many horsemen argue that drugs in a safe and regulated environment help keep horses sound so that they can supply the demand for all this racing. Well, the economy took care of the supply part at least as far as the horses are concerned, so why doesn't American racing answer the call and go drug free by 2013?
I pick that year because the foals born this year, in a crop that's the lowest since 1977, will be two in 2012 and of classic age in '13.
It always amazes me how racing rarely addresses its issues. When business is down, it's the weather—not the takeout or poor condition book. When European buyers don't want American bloodstock it's the economy—not that all the progeny descends from horses who raced on drugs their whole lives.
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Could not agree more, Ed. The only question I have is, why isn't this the beginning of a cover article on the magazine and website?
ReplyDeleteCould not agree less, Ed. With every one jumping on the bandwagen of "less is more" where do you think all the people who work in the industry should go? Racing needs more fans not less racing.Racing needs more positive press not this bashing at the hands of the T Times editor.Who cares if the europeons laugh at us.We have the best horses and use common sense and modern medicine to have the best racing.The world financial slow down is the reason less european's buy our horses.Have you ever tried to pay for shipping a horse overseas? You may think that year round racing at all the tracks you mentioned is not necessary but I know the horse owners trainers jockey's and state governments of these states think otherwise.Maybe we should consolidate all the racing publications and you can work for three or four months a year.After all less is more.
ReplyDeletecould not agree less with Ed.The less is more bandwagan makes no sense.We want racing to grow so lets have less? Lets, also take all racing publications and make them each do 1 month a year.Remember less is more.
ReplyDeleteSorry, but "drugs" in race horses has exactly zero to do with foal crop size.
ReplyDeleteWhat you can hope for, however, is the still-slim chance of another Triple Crown winner, finally, as "foal crop size" has definitely contributed to the long period since the last Triple Crown winner.
In regards to medication, it's so tough. if you get rid of race day meds trainers are just going to replace it with something else, That Said,The Jockey Club could have the biggest impact and here's how. Germany has a strict rule involving medication and breeding stallions, the JC wouldn't have to go that far. Starting with foals born in 2012 any stallion ever racing on med would have his first four crops limited to 20-30 foals. This allows the market evaluate his offspring soundness before flooding the market. It would put pressure on trainers of the top horses not to medicate. Also the JC could put restrictions on breeding fillies such as only every other year. And not allow geldings or any horse to compete in stakes races with medications. Most of this could be enacted with zero cooperation from any groups or states.
ReplyDeleteStarting in 2012 would allow breeders the chance to make wise choices for the upcoming season. Let the horseman groups and tracks catch up in there own time. Owners will dictate which horses race on meds because they want full use of their breeding and value will be less if medicated. The market would fix it's self. It may take a few years and there would be a hissy to start with but the industry would be better for in the long run.