That Whoopee Cushion-like sound you hear is most of the air leaving the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) balloon as what many thought would be a Royal Rumble of epic proportions is looking more and more like a two-horse main event.
Going into summer, Blame, Lookin At Lucky, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, and Zenyatta all looked like top-shelf contenders for the world’s richest race on dirt, and while any of that quintet plus a host of other contenders still could make some noise in the November 6 race at Churchill Downs, the top shelf is roomier for Blame and Zenyatta as the other three each have lost some luster because of performance or health.
It is a shame that there is still 8 1/2 weeks before the race and yet the top five contenders only are expected to make three starts combined before the race. Blame will run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) on October 2 at Belmont Park and Zenyatta in the Lady’s Secret Stakes (G1) on October 2 at Hollywood Park during the Oak Tree Association’s fall meeting there.
Quality Road, a three-time Grade 1 winner this year, had his final prep on September 4 and won the Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course. Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said on September 3 that he could train Preakness (G1) and Haskell Invitational (G1) Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky up to the Classic following some missed training because of health issues.
Rachel Alexandra is a wild card in many ways. No next start has been announced for the 2009 Horse of the Year—who has yet to win a Grade 1 race this year—and her participation in the Classic is uncertain following a runner-up finish to Persistently in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles—her only start at the American classic distance.
However, assuming both Zenyatta and Blame win their aforementioned final preps, they will be the focal point of the vast majority of the buzz leading up to this year’s Classic, which is a departure from five weeks ago when all five horses seemed poised to grab their share of headlines.
So much shine is off the prospect of a Zenyatta-Rachel Alexandra race that rust is probably a better term. Count me among those who thought Rachel Alexandra could defeat Zenyatta in a Grade 1 race, and maybe that was the case last year, but it would be impossible to argue that Rachel Alexandra would have finished ahead of Zenyatta in this year’s Personal Ensign.
Zenyatta probably will go into the Classic unbeaten in 19 starts with only one major question left to answer: Can she defeat Grade 1 males going a classic distance on dirt? Rachel Alexandra, meanwhile, still could attempt the Classic, and her winning would not be as shocking as Arcangues in 1993 or even Volponi in ’02, but there certainly are more questions surrounding her form—especially at 1 1/4 miles—than the answers Zenyatta has provided without fail every time she has started.
The other rivalry that was planted earlier this year was Blame versus Quality Road. While that seed grew somewhat, the fruit failed to ripen when Blame blew past his rival in deep stretch of the Whitney Handicap (G1) without Quality Road offering much resistance.
That race was 1 1/8 miles, which many thought gave Quality Road an edge even as he gave weight to his adversary, but the result did not portend great things for Quality Road when adding another furlong against similar competition.
If Blame wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then he will go into the Classic with the mantle of being the toughest competition Zenyatta has faced with the added bonus of having won significant races on the track—last year’s Clark Handicap (G2) and this year’s Stephen Foster Handicap (G1).
Other interesting storylines are sure to emerge, of course. Dual champion Gio Ponti and multiple Group 1 winner Twice Over (GB) both could try the Classic again after finishing second and third, respectively, behind Zenyatta in last year’s edition on the synthetic Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita Park.
Unbeaten Twirling Candy, seemingly a monster against his own age on turf with two stakes wins in as many attempts, will return to Cushion Track for the Goodwood Stakes (G1) on October 2 during the aforementioned Oak Tree meeting as a prep for the Classic, which would be the Candy Ride (Arg) colt’s first start on dirt.
His presence would create the subplot of dethroning Lookin At Lucky as champion three-year-old male with a victory after following a path similar to eventual 2000 Horse of the Year Tiznow.
Do not get me wrong. All eyes will be on Zenyatta, and all eyes would have been on her even if all of the other horses I mentioned had done no wrong this summer. The fact that so many good horses did do wrong just adds to Zenyatta’s legend since she has remained perfect through three seasons of racing, and the quest to be the first horse to defeat the reigning Breeders’ Cup Classic winner will be as much a part of this year’s story as her quest to win it again.
6 soothsayers: