Colonial Downs

Kudos to the girls and boys in New Kent, Virginia, for putting together a great day of turf racing at Colonial Downs: a pair of two-year-old stakes races, a race for older horses, and a graded race for each sex of three-year-olds all on the turf make up a fascinating pick five that I hope to hit.


Here's how I see the races:

Race 8, leg 1

#1 Z Appeal sure looks like the real deal here and for me is the most likely winner in the sequence. Yeah, he started his career in a maiden claimer, but a $50k MCl at CD is for me on par with an MSW in the Midlantic. Plus, he only cost $22k at auction and is by a "cold" sire, so I have no doubt that the Romans team figured they could get an easy win and if they lose the horse then they still get $50k+purse+winning tix for their troubles. The family includes G1 winners at two as well as Speightstown, who is a win-early sire. I'm on board this piece.

Race 9, leg 2

This field attracted nothing more than maiden winners from the region, so I have no problem with #5 Molly Mingun as my top pick. She easily handled these types first out, and the horse she beat by open lengths, #9 Valiant Star, came back to win by 13 lengths and scratched from this race. I am interested that Homeister is off Molly Mingun and instead on #8 Funny Side Girl, a first-time starter from T. Salzman's barn, but these are deep waters, and the trainer's 0/31 mark is enough to keep away in a stakes. My "C" picks are 1, 2, 3.

Race 10, leg 3

#9 Pleasant Strike is right in the mix with any race besides his last one, and who knows what happened there. I can't hang my hat off that performance, but I still like him enough to be an "A." #11 March to Victory could be the best value in the entire sequence. He's 8-to-1 on the ML but his last two races are obvious throwouts—12f on yielding and off-the-turf at Indiana. If you look before that, he's easily in this mix and picks up sleepy today. My Bs are 3, 4, 7.

Race 11, leg 4

Classic either-or race for me. Either you love #8 Check the Label or you have to go really deep. I have no problem using the eight as an "A" but if I'm thin elsewhere then I'm thick here with ALL but the four.

Race 12, leg 5

Either #1 Top Notch Road or #2 Krypton would each interest me if they were lone speed, but since they're both speed it's tough to look past Paddy O'Prado who has shown the ability to rate and not necessarily have to come from way back. If he gets clear run it's over. Still, there is enough speed in the race where this could set up for Interactif (possibly same style as Paddy) or Stately Victor (if a dead closer mows them down). Paddy is an "A" for me, but the other two are solid "Bs." and if I'm right on my other As then I'd want to be alive to 1, 2, 6 as well.

Good luck to all; great luck to me.