Saturday, June 12, 2010

Where to next

The bizarre thing about there being four graded stakes races for older females "going long" on the main track this weekend is not the quantity this weekend but the dearth beyond.

Whereas owner Jess Jackson gave us four possible races for Rachel Alexandra to run in on June 12, his options between now and August are extremely limited, so limited in fact that if she were to race before August the only spot is the $750,000 Delaware Handicap on July 17 at Delaware Park.

Of course, the date most people will likely be circling on their calendars is August 1 when Saratoga Race Course offers the $250,000 Ruffian Handicap going 1 1/8 miles on dirt for fillies and mares aged three and up.

Delaware Park likely has more resources to up the ante to attract Rachel Alexandra and/or Zenyatta, but Saratoga seems like a more natural setting for the showdown everyone has wanted since June 27, 2009, when Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose and Zenyatta won the Vanity. Assuming Zenyatta wins that race again on Sunday, the anticipated matchup will have gained some of its luster back following Rachel Alexandra's Fleur de Lis win in which she ran faster than the males in the Stephen Foster Handicap later on the card.

The Whitney on August 7 will be on many people's list for either or both champion females, but I can't imagine any horsemen in the country would be keen to take on Quality Road, though I am anxious to see what the connections of Blame do since all the Grade 1s on dirt for older males are at New York tracks from here on out, and Quality Road probably won't be missing many of those. Rail Trip will likely stay West until the Breeders' Cup.

The stakes scheduled the past few weeks have allowed horsemen to cast a pretty wide net in terms of finding the best spot for their horses, but that certainly narrows this summer with fewer options and at very specific tracks. Especially with the Breeders' Cup at Churchill this year (and next), none of the top horsemen East of the Rockies will be shipping West for stakes races this year, which means either A) the Breeders' Cup could become an East-West Battle Royale, or B) more West Coast-based horsemen will be shipping East in the summer or early fall.

14 soothsayers:

  1. I wish the connections of Blame would consider coming west instead for the Hollywood Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic. He would demolish Rail Trip.

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  2. Doesn't Ellis Park have anything???

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  3. Ellis usually has the Gardenia, though I'm concerned I couldn't find a stakes schedule on the Pea Patch's website just now.

    It's a $100k G3 race, but they could bump it up to $1-million and extend it to 1 1/8 miles (it's a 1.5-turn mile now) to try to attract Rachel and Zenyatta.

    I can't imagine the place holds more than 10k comfortably, so that would be an interesting scene for sure.

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  4. One race does not make a champion. When RA wins a few more then you can start to hope for a race against the great Z. Right now a match race is old news. Jackson has played his cards too many times and backed out. Z will be foaling by the time RA wins 17.

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  5. I would actually like to see RA run back in the Suburban, that way she can get the itch for running against colts out of the way this season. After that it depends on what the connections want to do with her. Do they want to run the kind of campaign they did last year, very ambitious. Do they want to run the conservative route, and just run softer fields to make things as easy as possible. Or do they want to have a respectable season with some Grade ones while also keeping her fresh.

    If it's ambition I would say let her go in the Suburban, Whitney, Go For Wand, and JCGC. If it's the happy medium I'd say Suburban, Whitney, GFW, then Beldame. Now you could swap the Whitney for the Ruffian too, since the older females are actually shaping up to be a talented group too.

    The conservative route IMO would be to go Del Cap, Go For Wand, then Beldame. Not exactly a campaign of champions.

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  6. Anon... they're both already champions (Zenyatta twice).

    In terms of the leader in the division, even with a loss today Zenyatta would be well ahead of Rachel for this year's honors.

    LDP: If I were the connections of any of the top females, I wouldn't be in any rush to face males this year especially since they all have something to prove against each other. I'm far more interested in seeing RA, Z, Life at Ten, etc. square off before any of them try males.

    But that's just me.

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  7. Who cares about Zenyatta? She is tired. RA and QR would beat her by 5.

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  8. Is there any way that Rachel, Zenyatta, And Quality Road end up in the same race? There probably still wouldn't be a network that would pick up the broadcast, and that is sad.

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  9. I really don't see RA or Zen going after Quality Road. I think the fems will stick to the fems until Breeders' Cup, though there's a chance that either Zen or RA could face males in their region but not each other (e.g., RA in Whitney or Zen in Pac Classic).

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  10. you're all kidding yourself if you think quality road is a better horse at a classic distance than the amazon.

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  11. Sad "Anonymous"...just SAD! Why bother posting here. Zenyatta is a Multiple Graded Stakes champ...has taken on the World's Best in BC and will again. Tired? YOU don't have a pulse!

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  12. St Trinians could pull the starting gate around the track and beat everything that followed Rachel home

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  13. Frank LancelottiJune 14, 2010 10:47 AM

    Please, Zenyatta DID NOT take on the world's best. She DID NOT run in Dubai! Of course when she did race against the boy's she did it on HER home track (synthetic). You want to talk champion --- Goldikova. She races almost exclusively against the best males, males, I said males, in Europe, AND, on THEIR preferred surface (Grass). She is by far the best female racing today. Who, just who, has Zenyatta beaten, that most less than great horses beat on the same day. Her absolute best race was against St. Trinias this past week end. She will have her hands full against Rachael, Life At Ten, and St. Trinias (once again). Note: Goldikova travels around to meet the best in Europe --- Zenyatta stays home to avoid the best in the U.S. If she wants to be remembered as a CHAMPION, she needs to be CAMPAINGED as a champion. Zenyatta greatness is a product of marketing, as her owner is a master of marketing!!

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  14. We all know Zenyatta is going to the Hirsch Clement.... yawn.

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