Weather I'm right or wrong

There are times like this when I wish there was a roof over Belmont Park. Here I am with my Ragozin Sheets for Saturday’s card in hand, looking over an awful state-bred $15,000 claimer in race one with figures that look like Tiger Woods’ back-nine scores, and I’m wondering why I’m doing it.

Apparently Mother Nature had such a good time at the Kentucky Derby (G1) that she might stick her nose into the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Guess she had a college graduation to attend on Preakness Day.

Looking over the weather forecasts for Elmont, N.Y., there’s a 60 percent chance of rain on Thursday, with the possibility of a severe storm. On Friday, there could be scattered showers and Saturday’s forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms.

That’s not enough to break out Robby my trusty canoe (it’s Robby Canoe, thought you knew – yeah, a corny and used before joke but Yankee fans will get it) for the trip to Belmont Park on Saturday, yet it does place a Sword of Damocles over what should be a fun handicapping session well in advance of the big day. Weathermen, like turf writers, have been known to be wrong with their forecasts, yet there’s surely some uncertainty about the type of track we’ll see Saturday afternoon.

Something to keep in mind about Belmont Park is that if the rain disappears by Friday night, the track will be fast. Last year should illustrate that point. Belmont Park’s main track was a quagmire on Friday afternoon. When someone on a jet ski passed me on the Cross Island Parkway that evening while I was heading home in a torrential downpour, I figured I had better adjust my handicapping to find mudders on Saturday.

Smart me.

Of course, when I return to Big Sandy on Saturday, the track is good for the first race and fast by the eighth race.

Overall, there’s only been one time since 1994 that the Belmont has been contested on a track rated something other than fast, and don’t believe for a minute that for the past 16 years we’ve had nothing but clear skies each of those Belmont Stakes weekends. It’s Long Island, not San Diego.

One way or another, the track superintendent finds a way to rate the track fast for the big race, so don’t fret a little rain on Thursday or Friday. It’s the possibility of a storm on Saturday afternoon that’s the main concern, and let’s be frank, with the New York Racing Association’s luck this year, it sort of figures that a monsoon will hit Elmont, N.Y., at some point on Saturday.

But for now, let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope that Mother Nature decides to watch the Belmont on television. The opener is laughable – they’re actually non-winners of two lifetime $15,000 state-bred claimers. But the supporting stakes are first-rate: Eightyfiveinafifty vs. D’Funnybone and Discreetly Mine in the Woody Stephens (G2). Competitive fields in the Acorn (G1), True North (G2) and Just a Game (G1). Gio Ponti in the Manhattan (G1).

And the Belmont Stakes is a great betting race, with an intriguing mix of longshots like Stay Put and Make Music for Me and chalk like Ice Box and Fly Down to weave into the exotics.

Just in case, we even have some mud form to help guide us as Ice Box, Make Music for Me, Stately Victory and Stay Put all ran in the slop at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. Sure, Churchill Downs mud is different than Belmont Park slop, but at least it us gives some idea of what to expect if you see Mother Nature and Noah sitting side-by-side at the finish line.

So let me heed my own advice and resume handicapping for a dry track. Time will tell if it’s my first big mistake this weekend.

And can you offer any advice on the Belmont Stakes card? Leave a comment and let’s see who knows their stuff around here. Ed tells me some sharpies hang out here.