Foster day at Churchill Downs

Stephen Foster Handicap day at Churchill Downs is one of my favorite live racing days of the year. The hubbub of the Triple Crown season is safely in the rearview mirror, and the complement of stakes under the Twin Spires on this day provides an excellent gateway on the path toward the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

I've seen two of the biggest upsets in the history of Grade 1 competition on Foster day with Colonial Colony winning in 2004 and Seek Gold getting it done in '05 (at 91-to-1!). I don't anticipate prices quite that big in today's Foster, but there does appear to be some great betting opportunities on the card.

This year's Foster is what I like to call an "either-or" race. EITHER Battle Plan and Blame are who we think they are and it's a two-horse race OR they disappoint today and six other horses could win. My main pick four ticket will be using the either option especially given that both Battle Plan and Blame give you relatively opposite ends of the pace structure.

The race 9-10 double are the key races on the card as the second and third legs to the pick four and two legs of two different pick threes. I won't get too jiggity in the Foster in terms of the pick four, but the presence of two longshots I like in these two races has me excited.

There won't be enough money in the pools for me to retire even if La Gran Bailadora and Giant Oak sweep the Regret Stakes-Foster double, but a win by both would make my upcoming New York City vacation a lot more fun.

La Gran Bailadora is the horse I alluded to yesterday on Twitter. She's 50-to-1 on the morning line to win the Regret, but I think she has a big shot against this bunch and is a certain overlay. Sure, there's some fillies in here who have already proven themselves in stakes competition, and La Gran Bailadora finished behind two of her foes in today's race last out, but she's had two troubled trips off a two-month layoff, and I love her breeding for turf. I just think a clear run today might be enough to get her in the picture at a big, BIG price.

Giant Oak is one of those horses who I keep waiting for a breakthrough performance, and it always seems as if he offers just the right in these big races to take a shot. I realize I've now given out three horses in the Stephen Foster, so let me be clear: Battle Plan is my top pick, but the price on Giant Oak merits trying to make some money off him, and a La Gran Bailadora-Giant Oak double would certainly ease the pain of ripping up pick four tickets.

In race 8, Worldly looks to be the value based on his 6-to-1 morning line. I like the turf to dirt move, he's faced some good ones, and should be ready for a top effort today.

Race 7 looks fairly open to me, though the yielding course gives some pause to Asphalt and Guys Reward given their worst efforts came on that going. Gleam of Hope looks interesting to me returning to Churchill after being too far back in the Arlington Classic. A move to the inside hopefully keeps him a little closer to the pace today. Lost Aptitude and Our Douglas look best of the frontrunners and closers, respectively.

Race 6 kicks off the stakes program and features Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Her two losses this year have no doubt disappointed her fans, but I've learned some things about those losses: 1. the horses who run with her early have been nowhere late; and 2. Zardana "bounced" to the moon in the La Troienne, meaning Unrivaled Belle could do the same today at underlaid odds in the Phipps at Belmont.

Either Distinctive Dixie or Jessica Is Back could run with Rachel early and neither will be far off the pace even if they're not on it. Hopefully they take the money in the exacta pool and there might be some value in playing Multipass or Made for Magic underneath Rachel in a cold exacta. It's interesting to note that the top three choices in the Vanity this weekend—undefeated two-time champion Zenyatta, Grade 2 winner St. Trinians, and the aforementioned Zardana—have all defeated Made for Magic by about 5-7 lengths. Made for Magic won the Milady Handicap on May 16 at Hollywood, and Rachel gives her seven pounds today.

Good luck too all playing.