Belmont Stakes Eve

7 p.m.

The New York Racing Association doesn’t get a lot of praise these days, but it deserves kudos for moving the Brooklyn Handicap (G2) to the day before the Belmont Stakes (G1) and then linking it with the Belmont in a two-day, twin mile-and-a-half stakes double.

Watching horses race a full lap around Belmont Park is a rare treat and a race like the Brooklyn gives fans an idea of what we’ll see on Saturday – though the pace should be quicker on Saturday than Friday's 1:15.02 six-furlong split.

You can see how jockeys ride their horses, and when they make their move turning for home in a dress rehearsal for Saturday’s final leg of the Triple Crown. Plus, there’s always a thrill that comes from watching the field break from the gate right in the center of the grandstand, in full view of everyone in attendance.

About 48,000 more people will watch Saturday’s start, but the 4,432 who turned out at Belmont Park on Friday saw a race that would be labeled an epic if unfolded 24 hours in the future.

At the end of an exciting three-horse stretch duel, Alcomo nailed 18-to-1 shot Gabriel’s Hill on the wire to take the $200,000 Brooklyn by a nose and return $21.40.

Eldaafer, who took last year’s Brooklyn by a nose over Nite Light, battled between Alcomo and Gabriel’s Hill through the stretch, but weakened at the end and settled for third, two lengths behind the winner.

Alcomo and Gabriel’s Hill combined for a $263.50 exacta, and, yeah, part of my glee stems from nailing the exacta.

Earlier in this blog post, I listed Alcomo and Gabriel’s Hill as my second and third choices in the race and hopefully you were wise enough to play it safe and box the three. In the interest of full disclosures, my top choices can be shaky at times.

Those picks also put you in a nice position if you used them in the Brooklyn-Belmont Stakes double.

Judging by the will-pays, Ice Box will be a solid favorite when post time finally rolls around Saturday at 6:32 p.m. His payoff is $42.15 for $1.

First Dude is next at $67.40 and Fly Down follows at $72.95, mirroring the morning line.

The rest of the horses are listed at 10-to-1 or more in the morning line and Uptowncharlybrown, one of the buzz horses this week, leads the way, returning $114.55 in the double.

The rest of the payoffs, again all for $1, are Interactif $124.90, Make Music for Me $125.60, Drosselmeyer $141.50, Stately Victor $143.05, Game On Dude $173.20, Stay Put $305, Star Spangled $408.50 and Dave in Dixie $530.55.

Those payouts seem to fall in line with the probable pecking order in the win odds, though I’ll be interested to see where Stay Put winds up. The Ragozin Sheets guys like him, as you can see from my Ragozin Insider feature elsewhere on this website, and he was 8-to-1 in the early win odds, but he was ignored like your run of the mill 20-to-1 shot in the double wagering, paying $305 with Alcomo.

Let’s see what happens on Saturday.

So that’s it for today. I’ll be back Saturday to blog throughout the day and offer thoughts on the undercard and main event. I can’t guarantee a $263.50 exacta on Saturday, but hopefully we’ll have some fun watching “The Test of the Champion." from Beautiful Belmont Park.

5:30 p.m.

Just got a look at the Belmont Stakes win odds and, albeit there’s just $3,900 in the pool, we’re looking a very wide-open betting race.

Ice Box is the choice at 4-to-1, followed by Drosselmeyer at 5-to-1, Uptowncharlybrown and Fly Down at 7-to-1, and First Dude, Stately Victor and Stay Put at 8-to-1.

Aftter that comes Game On Dude (12-to-1), Make Music for Me (13-to-1), Dave in Dixie (16-to-1), Spangled Star (24-to-1) and Interactif at a very surprising 33-to-1.

Post time for the Brooklyn Handicap is 5:49 p.m.

I’ll be back.


5 p.m.
One of the good things about having a laptop computer and an ADW like twinspires.com, is that it’s a snap to chart exotic payoffs and put them to good use.

In this case, with the Brooklyn Handicap (G2) less than an hour away, the Brooklyn-Belmont Stakes double will-pays offer a sneak peek into what we’ll eventually see in the Belmont Stakes win pool.

So far, American Dance (5), Eldaafer (4) and Gangbuster (3) are currently taking the most money in the Brooklyn end of the wager.
To no one surprise, Ice Box (6) is the favorite in the Belmont end, though Fly Down (5) is taking more money than First Dude (11), the 7-2 second choice in the morning line.

After that, Uptowncharlybrown (10-1), Make Music for Me (10-to-1) and Drosselmeyer (12-to-1) are bunched pretty closely. Game On Dude (10-to-1 is not gathering much steam, falling behind Stately Victor (15-to-1) and Interactif (12-to-1) in the double pools.

The chalk double right now is $16 for Ice Box-American Dance and $17 for Ice Box with El Daafer and Gangbuster.

I’ll keep you posted.

2 p.m.
Greetings from steamy Belmont Park.
We’re coming up on 24 hours from the Belmont Stakes (G1)and not even Jack Bauer could find a way to keep busy today.
The eve of a Triple Crown race is generally about as quiet as it gets for the 3-year-old generation, with everyone focusing on simply making it to the starting gate on Saturday safe and sound.
The only real news from today involves the wagering end of the race, with a couple of items that are worth noting.
The first involves the opening glimpse of the win odds on the Belmont Stakes (G1). We’ll see only a small portion of the total pool today, but it can be telling, especially if that 20-to-1 shot you like opens at 6-to-1.
The other is the Brooklyn-Belmont Stakes double, which offers handicappers a chance to link up their Belmont choices and know a day ahead of time if they are sitting on a nice – or paltry – payoff.
This approach worked pretty well last year when Eldaafer took the Brooklyn at 17-to-1 odds and combined with 11-to-1 Summer Bird to form a $337.50 double.
Eldaafer is back to run in today’s Brooklyn, but I doubt he’ll figure in a $300 payoff this time. He’s listed at just 9-to-2 odds and I’m a little leery of using him because he’s returning off just 15 days rest for a mile-and-a-half race.
I like Tiger’s Rock (7) at 7-to-2 odds and will link him with Alcomo (8) and Gabriel’s Hill (2) in the doubles with Stay Put (10), Ice Box (6), Make Music for Me (4) and Fly Down (5). I’ll probably wheel my longshot in the Belmont, Stay Put, with everyone in the Brooklyn to give me a hedge against his final win odds.
I’m might change my choices in the Brooklyn if the humidity brings Mother Nature into play and we get a downpour before post time, but for now the skies are clear and I’m sticking with those three in the Brooklyn.
More later.
And what are your thoughts on the Brooklyn-Belmont double and what the win odds should looks like? Feel free to post your thoughts.