Ed's morning line

One of my favorite exercises when it comes to big races is to try to establish a morning line. I'm pretty hard on the morning line makers at most tracks, so it's only fair that I try to do it myself for races with which I am familiar.

Win betting in Triple Crown races has been interesting the past several years. Whereas Lookin At Lucky was about 3-to-1 to win the Derby based on the Oaks-Derby double will pays, he actually went off at much higher odds, though he was the favorite.

I mostly agree with Maryland Jockey Club morning line odds maker Frank Carulli, especially at the top with Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner Super Saver the likely favorite at 5-to-2. He has L@L at 3-to-1, but I think we'll see 7-to-2 on him. If the money wasn't there on Derby day, then I don't think it'll show up in that many bunches on Preakness day.

Our biggest difference is Yawanna Twist, which he has among the longest shots (along with Northern Giant) at 30-to-1 while I have him as the eighth choice at 24-to-1. I agree that Northern Giant will be the longest shot, though Racing Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas can take crazy action at times. In 2005, his Going Wild finished last of 14 as the 26.50-to-1 13th choice but should have been at least three times that price.

Coming soon are a list of prop bets I've devised for the Preakness, but for now here is my projected odds for the race along with Carulli's: