48 days to go

Some notes from the opening weekend at Monmouth Park, which featured increased attendance and handle over last year for the first two days of the 50-day meet.

• Favorites won ten of the 24 races for a strike rate of a robust 41.67%, but only one of those favorites was odds on, six paid at least $6, and one was as high as 7-to-2.
• Gulfstream Park looks to be the early leader in terms of key circuits at the meet, as horses who last raced there won a third of the races, and that strike rate balloons to 47% (8/17) when you only include overnight races without Jersey-bred restrictions.
• Speaking of the races for New Jersey breds, all four were won by horses making their 2010 debuts for four different trainers.
• Pure speed hasn't done exceptionally well with one gate-to-wire routing on turf, one routing on dirt, and another sprinting on dirt. Being near but not on the pace seems to be the way to go regardless of the course/distance
• The rail post position has yet to win a race on the main track
• Ken Ramsey has won twice with clearly well meant horses. You won't get a lot of value by having his horse on top, but if the horse fits—even on a massive drop—it's looking as if you can single with confidence
• The Monmouth pick five with its 15% takeout and $.50 minimum is the best bet in racing.
• Here is my spreadsheet, so feel free to draw your own conclusions!

We'll be back later this week with a look at week two at Monmouth, but in the mean time, there will be a detour to my home track of Thistledown on Tuesday.

Talk at ya then.