Pletcher and the Derby

I had so much fun looking at the odds involved in Zenyatta's and Rachel Alexandra's winning streaks that I thought it would be fun to take a look at trainer Todd Pletcher's Kentucky Derby losing streak in a similar way.

Indeed, much (too much?) will be made of Pletcher's goose egg in the Kentucky Derby in the 26 days leading up to the race--especially since likely favorite Eskendereya could be among an octet of starters Pletcher could saddle in the race.

Even if that number decreases by two, he would still break the record he shares with Racing Hall of Fame trainers D. Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito for most starters by a trainer in the race.

Lukas saddled five in 1996 when he won with Grindstone; Zito saddled five in '04 but managed no better than 7th with favored Bellamy Road; Pletcher saddled five in '07 and did no better than sixth with Circular Quay.

Of course, Lukas (Pletcher's former boss) has won the Kentucky Derby four times while Zito has won twice and both conditioners have won each of the races in the Triple Crown at least once while Pletcher has managed just a Belmont Stakes win with Rags to Riches in 2007.

Oh-fer-24 happens, though. Certainly it looks ugly when glowing in the spotlight of racing's grandest stage, but it's nowhere near the statistical anomaly that we'll be led to believe it is during the next month.

Since 2003, Pletcher wins with 20.4% of his graded stakes starters, and based on that, a 21-starter losing streak has a 250-to-1 chance of happening--by no means a sure thing but more likely than Powerball for sure.

Based on the win pool, the wagering public has never thought any one of Pletcher's starters had a better than 14.03% chance of winning the Kentucky Derby, and even when accounting for multiple entries, the Eclipse Award-winning trainer was never better than a 3-to-1 shot to win the race.

When looking at the chance that any one of his starters would win the Derby, the chance that they would all lose is 33.63% or about 2-to-1. So yeah, he was more likely to win at least once than he was to lose every time, but again, the guy isn't defying the laws of gravity here.

Put another way, the wagering public figured Pletcher more than twice as likely to lose with every starter than win with any one starter.

I don't like to dwell on negative aspects of a person's record when previewing something about to happen, but I won't be able to resist asking Pletcher what upsets him more: being winless in 24 Derby attempts or finishing dead last five of the nine years he's had a starter. My guess is that it's the latter.