Losers

It rubbed some people the wrong way that the March 13 crowd at Santa Anita Park cheered when Rachel Alexandra lost the New Orleans Ladies Stakes. Of course, the extra mustard on that poop burger was that she lost to a horse trained by local (to Santa Anita) trainer John Shirreffs, who also happens to train Southern California racing's star attraction and Rachel Alexandra's rival (on paper) in unbeaten two-time champion older female Zenyatta.

So, yeah, part of it was the local crowd cheering for the local connections running in a far away land—much like many of us (especially those from New Jersey and South Florida) will cheer for Presious Passion on March 27 in the $5-million Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan.

But part of it too was legitimate cheering AGAINST Rachel Alexandra, which in and of itself was a way of cheering for Zenyatta.

We all want horses and jockeys to compete safely and soundly, and there is no lower form of life than the racetrack (or OTB) degenerate screaming at a horse on the lead to "break a leg," but other than those extremely base types of "cheers" (which are anything but), I don't have a problem with wanting horses to lose.

I haven't had a lot of opinions about who will win races this year, but I've had a good feel for who is overhyped, and Bambera, Buddy's Saint, and Christine Daae all fit that bill for me. Sadly for most of us in this game (except those with access to Betfair), they pay for picking winners not losers, so I'm still going to work tomorrow even all three of the aforementioned horses posted losses that had to be embarrassing for their backers.

Re: Buddy's Saint. Can we stop pretending that the Remsen is the most important race on the two-year-old calendar now?

Re: Christine Daae. "The next Rachel Alexandra"? Maybe the next Bella Bellucci.

Re: Bambera. This mare clearly still has the most upside despite the last-place finish given that she broke slowly and didn't have a big-name pilot on board. I still don't think I'd bet her (even at a huge price) against Zenyatta, but she's certainly worth a bet back somewhere else if a new jockey is aboard.

The buzz surrounding these horses is indicative of a movement among those who write about the sport (Turf writers, bloggers, whathaveyou) to be the first to mention something. All three of the above horses had ridiculously long puffy features done about how great they are before they showed even a fraction of the required talent. This in turn led to deflated prices and opportunities elsewhere.

I'm guilty of this, too, of course. After Lentenor won his maiden race I ranked him NUMBER ONE on my Kentucky Derby poll. Shameful! Those who were against Lentenor and found the very haveable Doubles Partner in that N1X race made a nice score.

It's easier to pick losers than it is to pick winners. If you're against a 3-to-2 favorite, then you have two chances in three (after adjusting for takeout) to be right. So there's certainly less prestige in picking against a 3-to-2 horse than there is in nailing a $10 winner, but there always will be a certain level of pride involved with definitively zigging when others zag.