You know how every year come November October September, people complain that retailers push Christmas stuff too early? Well, that’s how I’m starting to feel about Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands discussions.
It’s not that I don’t want to talk about the Kentucky Derby in January, it’s just that I don’t want to obsess over who is going to win the Kentucky Derby in January. Do we really need top ten, top 20, top 50, or top 100 lists a third of a year before a race—even if that race is the most prestigious in the world?
No.
The lists make more sense now that we’re less than five weeks away from the opening leg of U.S. Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, but by this point in the calendar, discussions of who is the 20th best three-year-old are more about who deserves to be in the Derby than who will win the Derby.
Churchill Downs restricts the Kentucky Derby field to 20 entries with preference given to horses with more earnings in graded stakes races. The restriction is on entries, not starters, meaning that if a horse scratches after the close of entries there will be less than 20 starters even if more than 20 three-year-olds were entered.
There already is a fair amount of consternation about some horses not expected to have enough earnings to qualify for the Derby, and like Santa suits for sale in August, it’s too soon for those discussions.
When Keeneland Race Course opens Friday, it will offer the first of ten graded stakes races for three-year-old males between April 2 and April 28, and Churchill accepts entries for the Kentucky Derby three days later.
That roster of graded stakes does not include graded stakes races for three-year-old fillies or those for three-year-olds and older, both of which also provide an opportunity for qualifying dollars.
The ten graded stakes races for three-year-old males offer $4.7-million in possible earnings with six races offering the winner at least $180,000, which alone is good enough to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate in most years.
So, even if you think the graded stakes system is bunk, the end of March with nearly $5-million still up for grabs is not the time to grouse about Eskendereya not having enough earnings to get into the Derby if the race were tomorrow.
The race isn’t tomorrow, and at least a third-place finish in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 3 at Aqueduct would be more than enough to secure a starting spot for the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner.
As for the system of deciding entries being bunk, well I disagree with that, whether we have this discussion in June, March, or on Derby day.
The system has been in place since 1986; everyone knows the score by now. I’m sorry that Drosselmeyer isn’t likely to get in at this point, but it is tough for me to argue passionately for a horse who has not won a stakes race to get into the Derby.
One thing I like about Churchill using graded stakes earnings versus a points system is it allows host racetracks to make their Grade 3 race more attractive than a Grade 1 race. For example, the Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3) or Sunland Derby (G3) means more than the Fountain of Youth Stakes or Louisiana Derby (G2).
I flirted with the idea of suggesting a “bonus” for earnings in graded stakes contested around two turns on dirt since that is the Kentucky Derby configuration and surface, but Mine That Bird made me change my mind. He was already a bubble horse last year, and if dirt form counted for more than earnings on other surfaces, then he would not have made the gate.
So, to me, the system works and rewards horses who compete at the high end for longer periods of time while still allowing horses like Smarty Jones and Curlin to qualify with one or two big races (Smarty Jones had not raced in a graded stake until winning the 2004 Arkansas Derby [G2]).
Here is a chart of the past ten Derbys, how many horses entered, who was excluded, and the earnings of the last horse in and those excluded when applicable:
The chart is also available here.
One can make the argument that only in 2004 were "worthy" horses excluded, and that was a unique situation as well as Rock Hard Ten actually DQ'd out of 2nd in the SA Derby which would have had the qualified earnings amount. It's quite possible one of them would have finished 3rd or 4th in that year's Derby. Every other horse excluded really would have been unlikely to hit the board in their respective years.
ReplyDeleteFor example, the Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3) or Sunland Derby (G3) means more than the Fountain of Youth Stakes or Louisiana Derby (G2).
ReplyDeleteYou'd agree it's silly to start wondering who is and who isn't in the derby in December - I agree
But by the same token having a horse guaranteed a spot via a Gr III race in December is also just as silly.
You say the most important races are the ones held between now and May 1st, I agree, so why then are horses already locks for performances so long ago?
You were thinking about bonus points for 2 turn races on dirt, and yet you're ok w/ the bullring creating it's own bonus by jacking up the purse for a Gr III.
Graded stakes do make better sense than money earned. Tracks can do what they want w/ purses and that will attract a better caliber horse, but jumping the gun by equating all the grades is just silly. You'll come around at some point.
Handride,
ReplyDeleteI don't think the next month of races are MORE important, only that there are plenty of chances for horses to notch graded earnings that if they don't take advantage of those chances, then c'est la vie.
A bullring in December is just as viable as Pro Ride in November!
Enjoy that Kentucky Derby with Aikenite and Homeboykris, the best 3yos in the country!
ReplyDeleteIn Louisville, they start talking about the next Derby the day after the race is run. Heck, they'll be taking notes at Keeneland. Just the way it is here - Derby is year-round.
I'll enjoy Homeboykris as much as I did Keyed Entry.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, I'm fine with TALKING about the Derby, I just don't need top 100 lists and stuff like that in January. How many of those lists had Endorsement? It's just silly because there's nothing to gain from going that deep.
Good post.
ReplyDeleteI share Handride's concern about races like the Delta Jackpot, but this is largely a theoretical problem (how many unworthy December starlets have really tried?). Even though we have this Graded earnings debate every year, the fact is that over the last years even the alleged superhorses who failed in their "all or nothing" races (Denis of Cork and Dunkirk to name the last two) ended up in the Derby gate.
Since most relevant races are a de facto "win-and-you're-in", I find the current system much better than all of the qualification proposals I've come across so far.
Ed wrote:
ReplyDeleteDo we really need top ten, top 20, top 50,
or top 100 lists a third of a year before
a race—even if that race is the most prestigious in the world?
No.
I believe we live in a benighted online era where online racing bloggers "supplement" the news about top grade horses at various websites of trade publications.
Some of my cohorts were already looking for the Derby winner as early as July in Saratoga's juvenile MSW races. What if another illogical winner turns up this year and deflates all theories and press notices in four weeks, the same way Mine That Bird did last year?
Will the mass hysteria cease?
Probably not.
But there is racing life outside of a single race or a single event like the Breeders Cup. Let's cover them also. Shall we?
I think that is would be interesting if the earnings rule dropped 2YO earnings.
ReplyDeleteNew year = new colts.