At the dawn of a day of running

The biggest day of racing this year to date takes place today with a trio of champions returning among a quintet of races that includes a separate trio of Triple Crown prep races, the first Grade 1 race for older females of the year, and the four-year-old debut of Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.

Even I'm getting in on the act by facing the starter's pistol in a 3k race in Downtown Lexington this morning.

Of all the equine and human athletes competing today, I'm by far the most likely loser, so I won't bother handicapping my 14.913-furlong journey, but each of the five races most people will be watching today offers some interesting challenges.

I think it's more likely that the favorite will lose each of the three-year-old prep races than it is that either Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta will lose either of their races.

In an earlier blog post, I tabbed Lookin At Lucky a 60% chance to win the Rebel Stakes, and after handicapping the race more since that tab, I definitely need to downgrade that a bit. On ThoroGraph, Lookin At Lucky isn't even close to being the fastest horse in the race, plus there's the dirt question. He obviously has a lot of talent and is a worthy favorite based on class, but I'm going to go with Dublin to win this race, though I wouldn't mind seeing Noble's Promise (also making his dirt debut) pull it off since Albarado is the TCFL team DeRosa/Curry jockey.

Speaking of TCFL team DeRosa/Curry, I'll go with our horse Uptowncharlybrown in the Tampa Bay Derby. In the San Felipe Stakes, I'm interested in Interactif if he's really around 4-to-1 as the fourth choice in the field of seven.

As for the ladies, I think both win, but I give Zenyatta a slightly better chance of making it 15 in a row than I do Rachel Alexandra making it nine in a row.

On paper, it seems as if Zenyatta has more variables that could beat her. She's giving a lot of weight, she likely won't save ground given her jockey, and she's coming in off a 4.25-month layoff. Still, I see her as a near lock—a 95% chance—of winning this race.

Rachel Alexandra seemingly only has the layoff working against her, but it's a longer layoff and there are a lot more questions surrounding a two- and three-year-old stakes-winning filly coming back at four off a 6.25-month layoff. I like that assistant trainer Scott Blasi told jockey Calvin Borel, "Come here and ride her with confidence," but I'm not as comfortable with the layoff in this case, so I'm only going 90% chance Rachel Alexandra wins her race.

The great thing about this weekend, is we'll have a lot to talk about at the end of it with Triple Crown and Race For Ages implications out the wazoo. Hopefully I won't be in traction when we have those discussions.