Thoroughbred Times finally got in the the act of polling its staff and contributors on who each thinks will win this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, and the results were not much different than all the other polls that already dot the landscape.
The reason I mention it is because of my explanation that this is a poll of "who each thinks will win this year's Kentucky Derby." Some polls list the most accomplished three-year-olds, others rank by talented, others a hybrid of accomplishment and handicapping. Ours is meant strictly as an exercise in the latter.
That is, if you asked each of our poll participants, "Who will win the 2010 Kentucky Derby," their answer essentially should be, "The most likely winner is whomever I have ranked number one on my poll."
I like using the term "most likely winner" because nothing is certain in this game--especially weeks away from one of the most difficult races to handicap.
As for my "top ten," right now it's pretty much a top two and everyone else. I really like both Lookin At Lucky and Lentenor. We'll know more about the latter than we will the former this afternoon since Lentenor starts in a first-level allowance race Wednesday at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Michael Matz said a win could mean a Florida Derby start with an eye toward the Kentucky Derby.
Who I don't like is Buddy's Saint. I think he loses the Fountain of Youth at underlaid odds, and I don't think he'll even make the Derby starting gate. There's just way too much steam on that horse for my liking, something that seems to happen every year with the Remsen winner.
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Finally, someone who has not drank the Buddy's Saint Kool-Aid!
ReplyDeleteHe may be the most over-hyped horse on the whole Derby trail. For what? He is a play against for me the whole way, and i hope he makes the Derby, because it will mean i can toss one horse straight off!
Update: Liston from my Triple Crown Fantasy League team and Lentenor from my "top two and everyone else" edict both failed to impress today, though both had excuses.
ReplyDeleteListon stumbled at the start then had no shot to get going when an inside horse dropped his rider and came out on him. Lentenor engaged the speed the whole way, was somewhat wide on the far turn and got beat by a horse up the rail.
Hopefully I can still get some points from Liston in the NY 3YO stakes races. Lentenor I'll probably need to drop a few points given that some horses will surely impress me this weekend.
Buddy's Saint will earn my respect when he wins the Triple Crown. LOL. As if that's what he's out to do anyway.
Lentenor had an excuse alright. He is just not that good.
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