Jason Shandler of Blood Horse and I had a spirited debate on Twitter last week discussing the chances Rachel Alexandra shows up to the Apple Blossom. We couldn't agree on a price, so we didn't make a bet, but it's really more than an either/or proposition since there are four possible outcomes:
- Both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta compete in the Apple Blossom;
- Rachel Alexandra competes in the Apple Blossom but Zenyatta does not;
- Zenyatta competes in the Apple Blossom but Rachel Alexandra does not; and
- Neither Rachel Alexandra nor Zenyatta compete in the Apple Blossom.
Given about a 15% takeout, if you thought either option was as likely to happen as any other, then each choice would be 5-to-2. I'd probably want to play with that a little bit, though, because I think it's at least an 80% chance (versus 75%) that at least one of them shows up but that it's more likely that neither race versus both.
This is as much a game theory problem as it is a straight up propositional wager because I suspect there will be some cat-and-mouse gamesmanship between the two owners as the race approaches. The question is who will be the first to throw down the gauntlet and say, "We're going to the Apple Blossom and hope to see [the other horse] there." Zenyatta's camp has the edge there because she's been in serious training longer and will have a race in mid March.
If Zenyatta were to defect for any reason, then the Apple Blossom becomes a natural place for Rachel Alexandra to make her four-year-old debut. If Zenyatta points toward the Apple Blossom, then Rachel Alexandra's camp will look for a prep in March as well. The scenarios are fascinating.
As for wagering on the race, Steve Crist addresses that on his Cristblog, and I noted in the comments my surprise that Vegas or an offshore bookmaker hasn't put up odds for the matchup. Treating it like a future book where all bets are action regardless of who starts, I would start the betting as follows:
Odds to win the 2010 Apple Blossom:
- Rachel Alexandra, 8-to-5
- Zenyatta, 8-to-5
- FIELD, 8-to-5
That's a 15% takeout and makes handicapping who will be in the race as much a part of the wager as who the better horse(s) is/are.
The worst thing to happen to the "race for the ages" was Quality Road winning the Donn by a dozen lengths and receiving a Beyer Speed Figure of 122. Immediately most speculated that the best horse in training is neither Rachel Alexandra nor Zenyatta but Quality Road.
The best thing to happen to the "race for the ages" came quickly after the Donn when Quality Road's connections said that they would point toward the Met Mile in late May. Keeping him away from the races between now and the Apple Blossom will help the race more than reading wag after wag talk about how Quality Road is best.
And since it's Super Bowl Sunday and we're talking odds, I made my first bet on the Big Game since the Colts beat the Bears, and I'm going with the Colts again and giving five points to Who Dat.
Ed wrote:
ReplyDeleteI suspect there will be some cat-and-mouse gamesmanship between the two owners as the race approaches.
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Yes of course.
I think the horse that actually races in a two turn race like The Apple Blossom without any form of a sprint prep race is asking for trouble.
It takes extreme skill as a trainer to get a horse to be at his/her peak coming from off-the-bench.
We saw what Team Asmussen produced earlier this winter when their Friesan Fire needed a race against lesser rivals at Fair Grounds.
But a hard race with a stretch battle may throw off the rest of the campaign. The connections who sit pretty will be in a much better position to map out the rest of the year.
So cat-n-mouse it will be.