Zenyatta-inspired stream of consciousness

The good news about Zenyatta likely returning to racing is that it guarantees we'll have a Triple Crown winner this year.

Think of it: The greatest race mare in history retires undefeated in 19 starts but loses Horse of the Year to the Triple Crown-Breeders' Cup Classic winner.

It's a fascinating idea considering that Zenyatta did enough that in many two-year spans she'd be a two-time Horse of the Year, and if she runs the table again in Grade 1 races including at least one against males at the highest level, then a Triple Crown-Classic winner is the only way I could envision her not winning Horse of the Year again.

These kinds of outlandish scenarios are always what I think of when a big announcement comes down the pike.

I've spent all weekend obsessing over the weights Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra should carry in the Apple Blossom. A wrinkle to that conjecture is if Zenyatta wins the Santa Margarita Handicap under 130 pounds. It's rare that you drop weight off a winner, but I doubt team Rachel will want their champion filly to tote more than 126 pounds in her first race in seven months.

It's also fun to talk about money. Zenyatta already is the leading North American-based female, but she trails Ouija Board in terms of money earned by females with at least one North American start. A win in the $10-million Dubai World Cup could also put her in position not only to be the leading female earner of all time (past such greats as Makybe Diva and Vodka) but also the leading Thoroughbred earner of all time with a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic to surpass T.M. Opera O's $16,200,337 tally.

Without a doubt, both Jess Jackson and Jerry Moss are sporting owners who love the game and their horses, and with the sporting lifestyle comes a little bit of gamesmanship, and I think we're already seeing that in terms of a potential Rachel-Zenyatta showdown.

Rachel has not done any serious training since winning the Woodward. The target is an early February work at Fair Grounds, which could give her eight published workouts going into the Apple Blossom, a 1 1/16-mile handicap for older females.

Zenyatta has four published workouts since the Breeders' Cup Classic, and trainer John Shirreffs has mentioned the Santa Margarita Handicap as a potential six-year-old debut for the mare while Moss has said that Oaklawn is on his radar.

If I'm team Rachel, Horse of the Year or not, I'm not looking to make my four-year-old debut off a seven-month layoff at around equal weights with the returning two-time older female champion. This puts the PR advantage significantly in team Zenyatta's favor, as it would obviously reflect poorly on team Rachel if it "ducked" the Apple Blossom with that as Zenyatta's obvious target.

I'll close with a pessimistic thought. Even with both horses in training, I would offer 5-to-2 that they both compete in the same race. There's still a lot that has to go right to get these two in the gate, and as much fun as it is exploring the possibilities it's important to be grounded as well.