Salty

The above is one of my least favorite ways of describing food but one of my favorite modifiers when describing a race.

As an aside regarding the former, a good friend of mine used to work at Wendy's (quality is their recipe), and he said the rule at his store in Portsmouth, Ohio, was that if at least one customer per shift did not complain about the fries being too salty then the fry guy (or girl) wasn't salting them enough.

Anyway, I'll pass on the sodium with dinner, but a salty group of three-year-old males with Triple Crown aspirations is what Gulfstream Park is all about, and the eighth race on Thursday delivers not only in spades but also in clubs and diamonds. I'll save the hearts for Valentine's Day.

From a wagering perspective, this first-level allowance at a one-turn mile looks to offer value both vertically and horizontally, and I'll likely be dipping into the pools that cover both those axis. All four races in the late pick four on Thursday are likely to feature 12 starters/betting interests for 20,736 possible combinations, which is 41% more than if each field "only" had 11 betting interests. Thankfully, Gulfstream pick fours are at a $.50 minimum.

This is a sort of self-defining race in that the winner will automatically be viewed as a Triple Crown threat. For that reason, ALL the starters are worth watching, but I am especially keen on seeing how a few do in particular.

I'll start with the horse I like least at the suspected prices. #6 Eskendereya is the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, and I just don't see him winning this race. I love the breeding, and that 90 Beyer Speed Figure in his only start on dirt really sticks out, but this will be his first start on fast dirt, and I'm just not feeling the love at a short price since I expect he'll be far back early. I'm hoping he runs a clunker, goes back to turf, and scores there at an overlaid price of two poor efforts.

My "A" list in this heat includes #3 Bank of Eight, #4 Thank U Phillipe, and #12 Middle of the Nite.

I'm generally hesitant to put too much emphasis on race shapes in this type of race because of the limited experience of each of the starters, but I'm comfortable assuming that Middle of the Nite will go to the front under Edgar Prado from post 12. The Offlee Wild colt is making his first start for trainer Daniel Blacker after winning a six-furlong maiden in October at Belmont. His fractions that day were :22.47, :22.97, and :24.27. He definitely slowed down in the final furlong, but he was up by two-plus lengths and had run his fifth furlong in :11.97, so if he ends up alone on the lead, then I see no reason he couldn't carry his speed in a one-turn mile.

Bank The Eight has raced in two one-turn miles, finishing second to eventual Grade 3 winner Rule first out and then winning in November at Aqueduct despite trouble at the start. Two bullets leading up to this and a clean break suggest he'll be more a part of the mix early.

Thank U Phillipe is the 3-to-1 second choice, and I'll probably want more of a price on him come post time, but he merits watching as a way to judge the class of Florida Stallion series standout Jackson Bend (now with Nick Zito) and Buddy's Saint, as Thank U finished second, beaten 12 lengths, to Buddy's Saint in the Nashua after finishing second to Jackson Bend in the In Reality at Calder.

I don't want to go through the whole field, but two others who merit watching from a betting perspective given their 12-to-1 morning line odds are #8 Launch and Relaunch and #10 Remand. Both are coming off debut victories. Launch and Relaunch retains the services of Racing Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith who is likely not flying cross country for a trip to Too Jay's Gourmet Deli. Remand makes his first start for Sovereign Stable, which bought the Successful Appeal colt after a big win at Keeneland.

These races are great fun to watch, especially from the confines of an office in cold and snowy Lexington where visions of warm and sunny at Gulfstream provide one of the many roads to Louisville.

Wagering update: With 11 minutes to post, I'm surprised to see West Point's Middle of the Nite as the 2-to-1 favorite. Even as the 3-to-1 second choice, though, I view Eskendereya as an underlay and will avoid him.

My play is to key on #3 Bank the Eight, who is being ignored at 10-to-1. My second tier plays will involve the 4, 8, & 10. I can't completely ignore the 12, but I'll only use him with the three.