Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Failing as a report, the Satans Quick Chick anecdote
Thursday, October 22, 2009
#BC09 storylines: Ladies' days
There are six Breeders' Cup races open to three-year-olds and up of both sexes: The Marathon on Friday and the Turf Sprint, Sprint, Mile, Turf, and Classic on Saturday. Of those races, only the Marathon does not have a top female contender. It is thus conceivable that five of the six races "for males" will be won by a female racehorse. Ironically, the one race "for males" that will not be won by the fairer sex is the one race Breeders' Cup moved to Championship Friday, or "Ladies' day."
- Fleeting Spirit and Diamondrella are both considering the Turf Sprint. If either starts, then she would likely be my pick to win the race, and either could be favored.
- Fleeting Spirit is also considering the Sprint against males (such as Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Gayego). If her connections elect to go that route, then she would be the least likely winner of all the females taking on males, but the weight break would help, and she wouldn't be impossible.
- Goldikova and Diamondrella are both considering the Mile with Goldikova a likely overwhelming favorite to defend her title in that race.
- Dar Re Mi would likely be favored in the Filly & Mare Turf, but her connections are also considering the Turf against last year's winner Conduit, frontrunner Presious Passion, and others. Conduit is likely to go favored, but she would take money and have a big chance.
- Like Dar Re Mi, Zenyatta could go in the female counterpart to the Classic in the Ladies' Classic the previous day, but the Classic is a possibility. Also like Dar Re Mi, Zenyatta would be a heavy favorite against her own sex but would still take a lot of money in the open race with a big shot at winning.
Plus, from a selfish standpoint, writing about female domination would be a far more interesting storyline than last year's "The European horses are the greatest in the world, but really it's the synthetic surface's fault that they beat us even though the Classic 1-2 finishers were both bred in Kentucky."
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Zenyatta top storyline so far for #BC09
1. Zenyatta
The undefeated champion mare has a chance to win her 14th consecutive race on one of the sport's grandest stages. Whether she goes for that win (unprecedented in the sense that most of the wins came against open [to her sex] graded stakes company) in the Ladies' Classic on Friday or the Classic on Saturday.
Trainer John Shirreffs said October 11 that he would not make a decision as to which race for a few weeks, so I expect the cacophony from my fellow scribes saying how unsportsmanlike he is to begin at any moment.
Anywho, while some are already sick of the Zenyatta debate, discussions such as these are why I love racing. Heck, most of the time the horses don't get a chance to settle the score on the track anyway (e.g., RA-Zen), so discussion is all we have.
Zenyatta running in the Classic is a no-lose situation in terms of her reputation. Simply starting in the Classic will clinch Zenyatta her second Eclipse Award as champion older female, as voters would not penalize her for running in the tougher spot. If she wins, then she would get Horse of the Year consideration and go down as one of the absolute best ever. If she loses, then she gave it a try and still has the championship to fall back on and maybe a couple more races before breeding.
Running in the Ladies' Classic would not only put the undefeated streak on the line but also the championship, since Music Note would win the Eclipse with a head-to-head victory over Zenyatta. A Ladies' Classic loss would also raise many questions about her competition throughout the year before the Breeders' Cup. A loss in the Ladies' Classic would be a huge blow to her reputation. She's still a future Racing Hall of Fame member and a worthy champion, but a second in the Ladies' Classic (especially to Music Note) decreases her cache far more than would a fifth in the Classic.
Other considerations:
- A win in the Classic would put Zenyatta ahead of Azeri as the all-time leading earner among North America-based females. A win in the Ladies' Classic would put her within striking range of that mark with another big one before retiring.
- No female has won the Classic, and only Bayakoa has won the Distaff twice.
- Zenyatta would certainly be favored in the Ladies' Classic, but she would be near the wagering choice in the Classic as well. It's tough to know how the public would bet it with Rip Van Winkle, Summer Bird, and Gio Ponti likely to take money, but Zenyatta will almost certainly a shorter than any of the previous females to attempt North America's richest race
Thursday, October 15, 2009
n00bs
For those of us just joining the Internet, a n00b is a newbie or someone new to something.It's typically a derogatory term, as seen in this photo of a baby purportedly shouting at a n00b to "Shut the #*&! up," but I have nothing for love for the n00bs of racing.
My only complaint about n00bs in racing is that there aren't enough of them. Racing needs more n00bs.
To that end, Dana Byerly helped create Hello Race Fans!, a n00b site for hopefully soon-to-be racing enthusiasts. Dana has asked me (and others) to address a letter to new race fans, and I will share that letter once it's complete, but for now I wanted to point out that there are people (both in and outside of the industry) doing great work on marketing the sport.
Terry Finley's West Point Stable helped launch the FATE Initiative, which encourages people to Find a Thoroughbred Enthusiast.
Churchill Downs Inc. will install permanent lighting at its flagship facility in Louisville in time for the 2010 spring-summer meet. Night cards under temporary lights and the Twin Spires were a huge success for the track during the same meet this year, and even an anecdotal marketing analyst of the crowd would reveal a huge boon for the track among desired demographics such as women and young people.
I'll leave you with a blog post from a new co-worker following her first visit to Keeneland. It sounds as if she found enough in the scenary to keep her interested and was fascinated enough with the racing "scene" (the lexicon, traditions, etc.) to possibly want to know more, but racing horses around an oval will not be enough.
Kudos to Dana, Terry, CDI, Keeneland, and everyone out there trying to get people out to the track and coming back.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Eclipse Award chances
Per usual, the Breeders' Cup World Championships is likely to decide most of this year's equine Eclipse Awards, though one category is already sealed and some are closer than others.
Two-year-old male: The Breeders' Cup will decide this. If any of the year's previous graded stakes winners win then he is the champion.
Two-year-old filly: The Breeders' Cup will decide this. If any of the year's previous graded stakes winners win then she is the champion. If chaos occurs, then Hot Dixie Chick might get some attention.
Three-year-old male: Sea The Stars is getting some discussion as a possible Horse of the Year candidate with a Classic win, so that would put him in the three-year-old picture as well. Still, Summer Bird won a classic and has two Grade 1 wins at 1 1/4 miles, including one against older males. Granted, that pales in comparison to what Sea The Stars did last year, but Summer Bird deserves to be rewarded for that campaign, and if a filly doesn't show up in the Haskell, then maybe he adds a G1 at 1 1 /8 miles as well. So Sea The Stars makes it a conversation, but for me this one is over.
Three-year-old female: Rachel Alexandra
Older male: This category is in complete disarray. Macho Again is the only older male with multiple Grade 2 (or better) stakes wins on conventional dirt. If any older male who has won a main track graded stakes this year wins the Classic, then he gets the nod. Einstein has won two Grade 1s but none on dirt. Still, it'd be hard to deny Einstein with a good Classic showing. Gio Ponti could win older male and turf male championships with a Classic win.
Older female: Zenyatta can clinch this by running in the Classic, as I don't think voters would penalize her for running in that race even if Music Note were to win the Ladies' Classic. If Zenyatta loses to Music Note in the Ladies' Classic then she loses the streak and the championship. I just see very little to gain by going in the Ladies' Classic given what she has done this year to date.
Turf male: Gio Ponti has done enough, but if he were to win the Classic, then voters might give him the older male championship and the turf male award to whomever wins the Breeders' Cup Turf (especially if it's Presious Passion or Conduit), but really, if I think Summer Bird has done enough to earn the three-year-old male Eclipse even in the face of Sea The Stars, then surely Gio Ponti has done enough to win the Turf male Eclipse.
Turf female: If Dar Re Mi, Forever Together, or Magical Fantasy wins the F&M Turf then she would get the championship. If none of them win, then Goldikova could get the honors with a Mile win. If none of those four win, then the door would be open for Diamondrella to win with a Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint win (against males).
Male sprinter: This comes down to the Breeders' Cup. If Zensational or a complete bomb wins, then Zensational is the champion. If one of the year's previous Grade 1 winners wins the Sprint, then he would get the championship even over Zensational/
Female sprinter: A win from Indian Blessing, Informed Decision, or Venutra seals this category for any of them.
Horse of the Year: Rachel Alexandra controls this award and since only a Classic win by Gio Ponti, Sea The Stars, and Zenyatta even makes it a conversation, I won't address it here.
Overall: What occurred to me when considering all this is how the synthetic surface somewhat dulls this year's Breeders' Cup. If Sea The Stars beats our best on dirt, then I'm much more inclined to vote for him in a category than if it happens on Pro Ride. I want to see him here, and I'm sure part of the selling point is a chance at year-end honors here, but it just doesn't seem fair to Summer Bird.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Appreciating perfection
In reflecting on the chance that all three would lose (about a 19-to-1 shot if you figured each was 3-to-5 to win his or her respective race), it made me realize how special Zenyatta’s career has been.
Those who follow me on Twitter or read this blog regularly know that I am a huge Rachel Alexandra fan who thinks the three-year-old would have no problem disposing of Zenyatta at a variety of distances on any surface.
The one thing Zenyatta has going for her, however, that Rachel Alexandra (or Sea The Stars or Goldikova or a host of other superstars) can never get back is an undefeated record. Being undefeated is sort of like virginity, once you are defeated, you can never get the “un” back.
For Zenyatta, being undefeated means she won:
- her career debut
- all ten of her stakes races
- on four different surfaces
- while carrying 129 pounds
- after shipping 1,600 miles to face the defending champion older female in her dirt debut
- the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1) over six Grade 1 winners and a Canadian champion
Most of us who love Thoroughbred racing look for perfection in the facets of the game that interest us most: Trainers look for the perfect specimen, jockeys look for the perfect trip, handicappers look for that perfect angle, breeders look for the perfect nick, fans look for that perfect spot on the rail.
After winning the Tattersalls Irish Champion Stakes (Ire-G1) with Sea The Stars, trainer John Oxx said the Cape Cross (Ire) colt is the closest horse to a machine he has ever trained. Indeed, seeing all the moving parts of this sport come together into a perfect performance is something to behold and part of what has earned Thoroughbred racing its moniker as the Sport of Kings.
Seeing that perfection played out over multiple starts at the highest level of the game is an even rarer treat that has vaulted Zenyatta into the stratosphere as one of American racing’s all-time greatest mares.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
It's distribution, not the economy
Sure, the economy has likely reduced the discretionary spending of many of the Thoroughbred industry's patrons, but it hasn't eliminated discretionary spending.
I have a little less money to spend now than I did a year ago, but I'm still making decisions on how to spend that money. I enjoy gambling, so I still gamble. I just don't do as much of it. That means I either play the horses OR play poker once in awhile rather than do both twice in awhile.
Poker has made tremendous strides to make the game accessible to people throughout the country of all ages. Granted, the legality of those strides is suspect at best considering much of it involves gambling via the Internet, but there is some applicability to racing involved just the same.
The so-called poker boom earlier this decade brought a record number of people to card rooms at existing casinos. On my first trip to Vegas in May 2001, only a handful of casinos even spread poker, and those that did dealt either limit Texas hold'em or limit seven-card stud.
The key is that people who had never played before in a casino, experienced the game online, and liked it enough to create a demand for casinos to build additional poker rooms or expand already existing ones.
Compare this to the racing industry's approaches to off-track and advance depost wagering. Most tracks would rather add slot machines than build an off-track betting network. If the New York Racing Association was able to treat New York City OTB handle as if it were on track handle rather than from just another OTB, then it wouldn't need slots.
Maybe if Keeneland had its own ADW online and OTB across town, I wouldn't do all my betting through TwinSpires.com. Sorry, Keeneland. I love your facility and love the social aspect of gambling on horses, but I'm not driving 25 minutes to bet a few races when I can do it from home and actually hear a race call. And since I do my betting 10 months out of the year on TwinSpires, I might as well do it the other two months you run live racing, too. TwinSpires gives me points, you give me infuriating lines.
Takeout is a factor, too. Most people have less to bet and with 25%-30% takeouts on some bets in some jurisdicions, people are coming to the track with less and leaving with less than ever before.
Again, tracks would rather offer slot machines with a 5%-15% takeout than improve wagering on their core product, which already has a takeout with a floor at slot machines' ceiling!
To be fair, I can't blame tracks for wanting slots. They make money, the overhead is cheap, and they can run 24/7-365. As Randy Moss correctly points out in a blog post from last week, those tracks and horsemen who have received slots have not kept up their end of the bargain to help improve racing--certainly not in Pennsylvania where takeout on multi-horse wagers is 30% at some tracks.
The conventional wisdom at the forefront of the slots boom was that more money for purses would bring better horses. There are five- and six-horse fields galore at Woodbine, and it's the same quality horses at Mountaineer now as 15 years ago accept those horses just race for more money.
Slots have improved the product at some tracks and the breed in some states, but despite the influx of money from the machines, the overall breed and product remain the same. Now instead of West Virginia being the lowest level in racing East of the Mississippi, Ohio now has that role.
It's likely too late now to change the mentality of states and tracks to think past slots, but it would be great for the industry if more states tried to adopt the European model of off-track betting whereby smaller shops are allowed to accept wagers on horses. Arizona, California, New York, and other states have tried it to various extents, but an offtrack on-track model in racetrack markets could go a long way.