Big events important to all tracks

While enjoying an Iron City beer with a fellow Clevelander at Mountaineer Casino Resort and Racetrack this past March, my compatriot and I discussed the merits of Thistledown removing the Ohio Derby from its stakes schedule this year to funnel more money into overnight purses.

My friend agreed with the move, saying that Thistledown should do more to support its local horsemen--the people who commit themselves to the track's program long term--versus supporting the carpet bagger national horsemen who swoop in once a year for the big pot.

I disagreed, saying that every track should get gussied up at least once a year to put its best foot forward. Even schools in the poorest communities have homecoming.

In the end, the Ohio Racing Commission also thought that Thistledown should hold its signature event and mandated that the suburban Cleveland facility stage the Ohio Derby. Horsemen responded, as the connections of 13 horses dropped their names in the entry box on Emory Road this past Tuesday.

Although this year's Diamond Jubilee edition of Ohio's richest Thoroughbred race will be conducted with fewer funds in years past (the purse is down, and I imagine the marketing and capital improvements budgets are too), it will still give Thistledown a chance to dust off the old sport coat, borrow dad's clip on tie, and look its best for Northeast Ohio's most ardent supporters of horse racing.

Sure, the horsemen supporting the track this year and helping it achieve an increase in field size deserve some loyalty from management, but don't the fans in the area who have come out to watch and wager on racing under all sorts of conditions deserve a chance to see a better product every now and then too?

In addition to the Ohio Derby, the track will stage several Best of Ohio stakes races for Thoroughbreds bred in the Buckeye State. You can also watch and wager on major stakes and Breeders' Cup prep races from Belmont, Hawthorne, and Santa Antia.

Thistledown will never have the aura of a Del Mar, Keeneland, or Saratoga where every racing day is special--in part because none of those facilities conduct more than seven weeks of racing a year.

Day-in and day-out racing at Thistledown is a grind, and six weeks of stakes races and future Derby prospects at Saratoga is more interesting than seven months of bottom level claimers at Thistledown, but it's still the Sport of Kings at either facility.

The royalty, of course, aren't the owners or trainers, or fans. The kings and queens are the horses who know nothing but how to run as fast as they can when asked to do so, and that's not as tough a thing to appreciate when a track gets gussied up for the big dance.

Poker and racing

I knew I'd be gambling today, I just didn't know whether it would be on Thoroughbred horse racing or on no limit Texas hold'em poker. Both are pari-mutuel and either would be fun, but with the former in suburban Cincinnati in Northern Kentucky and the latter in suburban Louisville in Southeast Indiana, my man Frank and I had to choose one or the other.

With an eye to the sky, we were leaning toward poker Friday afternoon, and a gloomy start to Saturday in the Blue Grass has me thinking that we made the right decision. So, we'll be making the 90 mile trek west to Horseshoe Casino of Southeast Indiana to play in the "deep stack" no limit Texas hold'em tournament.

I haven't played poker in a live casino since February. I've played online since then, but live is a decidedly different game. Hopefully it's an easier game. I tread water online (can play on the same buy in for weeks usually), so any improvement in person would likely mean a winning day. Of course, with online poker, you can fire up another game seconds after the last one finishes. That won't be the case today. It's a three-hour round trip, and I can be done playing in minutes. At least there's Skyline in Louisville.

Daily Racing Form briefly published a poker problem during the insane poker craze in the middle of the decade. Then our fearless leaders made it difficult to gamble online and the craze died down enough that DRF abandoned the poker column, but offering it made a lot of sense to me. There are plenty of lessons I've picked up gambling on horses that I use when playing poker and vice versa.

One of the the basic tenets of no limit poker that I learned the hard way is "Big pots for big hands." Put another way, unless your David or Frodo, don't go to war armed with a slingshot.

It's a lesson I've applied to my horse betting, too. I used to put about the same amount into my bets no matter what. I'd go to the track with X amount of dollars and use Y/X for pick four wagers, (X-Y)/X for straight wagers, etc. There'd be some variation to back up real strong opinions, but I wasn't really using my bankroll effectively.

Now, I'm much more disciplined. Don't get me wrong, I'm still a degenerate who craves action plays, but instead of putting the same amount on a pick three that I'm unsure about as I would one I'm really excited about, I save my heavy artillery for the bets I'm more excited about, just I would save my tournament chips for pocket aces versus KQ or 99 (as much as I love those hands).

Evening update: Probably should have stuck to Turfway, as poker didn't go well. Made one real bad call that cost me 15% of my stack, another bad "value bet" for 20% of my stack, and by the third level I was crippled enough that only really good cards could have saved me. I'd rate my play a "D." :(

On the flip side, I'd have been really upset if I drove all the way to Turfway only to find out that it cancelled all of its pick four and most of its pick threes because Kentucky Downs had to cancel its card because of weather.

On the plus side, I said on the Thoroughbred Times Inside Post show that Hold Me Back was a major bet against and that I was tossing him from my tri. He ran (if you can call it that) way up the track, but I only caught the exacta despite the Thoroughbred Times TODAY Ragozin Insider pick winning the race at a juicy price.

The anatomy of a story

Patrick Patten of Handride and Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance asked on Twitter how a story as big as Lava Man returning to training slipped by the media for several weeks. I can't answer that question specifically, but here's what went down in the Thoroughbred Times office:

The e-mail came Tuesday afternoon from my boss, Thoroughbred Times Managing Editor Tom Law.

Lisa Groothedde, a correspondant of Thoroughbred Times and owner of Thoroughbred Information Agency, wrote on her blog Monday that Lava Man had returned to training with Doug O'Neill.

We in the newsroom knew immediately that this story would have legs. That is, that once it was out there among the masses that people would talk about it, want to know more, etc.

Since Lisa had already broken the story, I didn't see any reason to keep it secret even though it had yet to appear on Thoroughbred Times (or Blood Horse or Daily Racing Form). I posted on Twitter a link to Lisa's story on ThoroughbredInfo.com while our lead racing reporter, Jeff Lowe, tried to track down more details.

Those details were being kept under hats, however. People usually very forthcoming with the press (or at least Jeff) were referring questions to other people. Some people were employing stall tactics (e.g., "let me give you the story next week"). Others didn't call back.

The only person who did talk was Michael Blowen, who was as blindsided by our news as we were when we read Lisa's blog. Until Tuesday, he was under the impression that Lava Man would be at Old Friends later this year.

We left the office on Tuesday knowing that Lava Man was back with Doug O'Neill but did not feel comfortable enough with the why he was back with Doug O'Neill to go with a story. Was he in training for a race? Was he put back in familiar surroundings before a flight to Kentucky? We wanted those types of questions answered before going with a story, but as I said above, few people were talking.

The story took another turn late Wednesday morning when Equibase and DRF both listed Lava Man as having worked a bullet three furlongs at Hollywood Park. My initial reaction to that news was that was all the confirmation we needed that he was back in training and that we should put a story up now with the information learned yesterday and the workout.

Cooler heads prevailed, however, and we decided to wait to hear from either O'Neill or one of the owners before posting something. This lag cost us being the first to have the story among the trade media (Blood Horse posted something about 10 minues before we did), but I do feel as if our story is the most in depth with quotes from an owner, trainer, Blowen, plus some perspective on the returns of other notable retirees.

Questions still linger, though. How did O'Neill's team keep quiet the return of such a noteworthy horse? I realize this isn't the same as Brett Favre boarding a plane for Minnesota, but there had to be someone besides Lisa who knew Lava Man was back but kept it quiet.

It's an interesting story, and being a part of watching it unfold is why I became a journalist. I knew people wanted to read about it and providing that service is very appealing and satisfying to me.

A salute to TTimes legend Regal Ransom

We have this thing in our office called TTimes legends. These are horses that for one reason or another have become near and dear to our hearts as a group.

Sometimes it's because we all cashed a bet on the same horse (Fleet Streak) or because we always seem to lose on the same horse (St. Joe).

Other times it's because someone mentioned a horse seemingly for no reason, and we had a good laugh about it.

Way back in 2002, someone in the office asked, "Who do you like as champion three-year-old?" It was an applicable question at the time because both Travers winner Medaglia d'Oro and Pacific Classic winner Came Home were making a late summer run on dual classic and Haskell winner War Emblem for the sophomore title.

My answer came back "SHAH JAHAN," who was a $4.4-million yearling that Lukas trained that in typical Lukas fashion was ambitiously placed in stakes races without a lot of success. Everyone laughed, and SHAH JAHAN became the answer to a lot of questions for about the next month, cementing the colt's place in our hearts. Sadly, he died too soon and never was able to vindicate his purchase price at stud.

Those who know me would say that I beat jokes into the ground. Some try to make a joke and say I really know how to beat a dead horse, but those people aren't funny. Leave the jokes to Dennis Miller, ya know?

Anyway, when I really get stuck on an unfashionable opinion, I make sure everyone knows how I feel. In late winter/early spring, I was all over Regal Ransom. There wasn't a person I knew besides me who thought that Regal Ransom was better than Desert Party, but I was a believer and I backed my opinion at the windows. It paid off in the UAE Derby--not so much in the Kentucky Derby.

Still, it was nice to see him return victoriious in the Super Derby, and although 6-5 is nothing to write home about, it's enough to write a blog about.

Having TTimes legends is fun. It can turn even the most mundane race into a shared experience.

Unfortunate stereotype

The Keeneland September yearling sale got under way to underwhelming results on Monday, the particulars of which are documented on the home site better than I could do here.

The one aspect of the sale I want to address is the idea that poor results only means that the rich won't get richer.

Breeding horses is an agribusiness. These are farmers who raise horses to sell at market, and their margins are razor thin.

The general public latches on to the idea of a breeder paying millions of dollars in stud fees and assumes that means that the breeders are all millionaires. Raising horses is more than just paying to breed a mare and then selling the foal. There are personnel, transportation, medication, and prep costs.

Jess Jackson, a billionaire, can afford to lose $1-million in breeding costs, but the racing industry cannot because that is $1-million less that he is spending on salaries, other horses, etc.

When Jackson (or Farish, or Sheikh Mohammed or John Magnier) lose money, that is less money they invest in racing. And their investments go beyond horses. They employ people and they use other businesses such as horse vans, vets, etc. The people they employ live where you live and spend money at your businesses.

Even on a low level, think of a $100/week bettor. He goes to the track each week and can afford to lose $100. If he loses the $100 you don't feel too badly for him. He was willing to lose the $100, could afford to lose the $100, and losing the $100 won't cause any hardship in his or in the lives of his family members. He even had fun losing the $100. He came close to a couple winners, kibitzed with his friends, and is looking forward to next week already. But if he lost that $100 every week, he'd eventually stop coming.

Similarly, even if "wealthy horse owners" lose discretionary income every sale, they're not going to stick around forever, and when they're gone, they take a lot of jobs and economic impact with them.

I observed opening session of the Keeneland sale from the office but was in touch with several people inside the sale's pavilion. I asked how the mood was. One said "depressed." Another said, "People are going to go out of business because of this."

In some regard, a correction for the sport isn't a terrible thing. Stud fees had gotten too high, and 45,000+ foals a year and the races needed support those foals are out of hand. But to suggest that poor results at the sales—any sale—just means that the rich won't get richer is an unfortunate stereotype of the people who derive their livelihood from the Sport of Kings.

T-1 (aka T minus 1)

Murphy's Law reared its ugly head at about 4:30 p.m. EDT on Sunday when a T1 line between Thoroughbred Times's office in Lexington and our home office in Irvine, Califonia, went down, severing our ties with those who receive information from us by way of the Internet.

Safe in my weekend cocoon yesterday afternoon, I was blissfully unaware that anything was amiss at the office. It wasn't until this morning, when checking the headlines on ThoroughbredTimes.com that it struck me as odd that our lead stories all reported on weekend stakes races with nary a word on the Keeneland September yearling sale.

I know how hard the Thoroughbred Times team works each sale--both on the grounds and in the office--to bring our readers up-to-date information and analysis, so it's frustrating not to be able to share that information with you.

Still, we're not completely back in the dark ages. We'll be communicating with people via Twitter as well as our blogs: The one you're reading now and Pete Denk's sales blog.

Enjoy the sale!

Punt, pass, deck

As an Ohio State Buckeye fan whose favorite horse in training is Rachel Alexandra, there are several big events today.

The Ohio State just scored a touchdown on its first drive, and Rachel Alexandra is attempting to become the first female to win the Woodward Stakes, a race that in the past six years has been won by four eventual Horses of the Year.

The biggest event of them all (for me, at least) will go down in my backyard when I attempt to use the Labor Day weekend to build a new deck.

So I'll be checking in on the Buckeyes via radio, Twitter, and the odd look at the TV. And I'll certainly take a break around 5:45 to watch Rachel Alexandra run. I just hope I can work the remote with calloused fingers!

Rachel Alexandra's magic number is one

I have voted for the Eclipse Awards the past seven years dating back to 2002 and have a perfect record in the Horse of the Year category. That is, the horse who I voted for has taken home the hardware. This just means that everyone else has gotten it right.

The Breeders' Cup decided the outcome each of those years except last year when Curlin's Breeders' Cup run was just gravy on top of a campaign that already included wins in the Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster Handicap, Woodward Stakes, and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Even in years when the winner did not race in the Breeders' Cup (Mineshaft in 2003), the so-called World Championships helped seal the fate of that year's Horse of the Year. Had Medaglia d'Oro or Funny Cide won the 2003 Classic then either would have been Horse of the Year over Mineshaft.

Regardless, the Horse of the Year decision came down to October or November races. Those months could still settle divisional championships this year, but Horse of the Year will not be a part of the conversation if Rachel Alexandra wins the Woodward Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course because that honor will be as fait accompli as her champion three-year-old honor is.

That said, the Woodward is no gimme. She's facing three Grade 1 winners, two of whom earned that black type at the Woodward distance against open company. The field also includes three Grade or Group 2 winners and is deeper and more talented than what we saw in the Travers Stakes last week—a race that included two Grade 1 winners (neither at the Travers distance and neither against open company) and two two Grade 2 winners.

Barring a Triple Crown winner, Labor Day weekend is about as early as I can imagine a horse clinching a Horse of the Year title.

If she loses, then Horse of the Year is no gimme for Rachel Alexandra. Going into this weekend, there are nine horses I still rate as having a chance of winning Horse of the Year. Rachel Alexandra we've already discussed. Here are the others who have a shot, ranked in order of probability.

Bullsbay or Macho Again: If either wins the Woodward and then adds the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic then he would get my vote. It would just be too tough to deny a four-time Grade 1 winner against open company including two wins at 1 1/4 miles.

Rail Trip or Einstein: Each ranks slightly below Bullsbay or Macho Again because Bullsbay or Macho Again would have the benefit of having beaten Rachel Alexandra in an open Grade 1 race. Still, if either wins the Pacific Classic and then wins out in the Breeders' Cup Classic either would have three Grade 1 wins against open company at 1 1/4 miles.

Gio Ponti: The plan right now is to go to the Breeders' Cup Turf, which takes him out of contention for Horse of the Year honors, but if his connections call an audible and decide to go for the Breeders' Cup Classic, then a win there would earn him Horse of the Year honors.

Zenyatta: She's not in the conversation right now especially given her connections' current plan to go to the Lady's Secret and then Ladies' Classic, but like Gio Ponti, if they decide to go for the Classic and she wins then Horse of the Year is hers with a Rachel Alexandra loss in the Woodward.

Mine That Bird or Summer Bird: The door is quickly closing on the three-year-old male champion also winning Horse of the Year, but if either Mine That Bird or Summer Bird win out then either could enter the Horse of the Year conversation. The problem for each is that Rachel Alexandra beat them on the track in Grade 1 races. They're extreme longshots.

Some think Rachel Alexandra has already sealed the deal, and she certainly holds all the cards. A loss by any of the above horses would hurt their chances for Horse of the Year a lot more than a loss by Rachel Alexandra would hurt her.