Sunday, August 30, 2009
The power of a plan
Tim Ice, Saeed bin Suroor, and Ian Wilkes won the Grade 1 races on the Travers Stakes card (with bin Suroor adding the Grade 3 Victory Ride and nearly the King's Bishop) with horses they had been pointing toward their respective races for months.
Although the manner in which trainers prepare their horses for a big race has changed dramatically over the years, the idea that a trainer can condition the equine athlete for a peak performance in a certain race has not.
Whereas the superstars of yesteryear used to prep for stakes or a return to racing in allowance company, the top stakes horses of today usually stick to graded stakes.
Take the Godolphin horses who raced on Saturday for instance. Sara Louise won the Victory Ride off an eight-month layoff, Vineyard Haven finished first (placed second) in the King's Bishop off a six-month layoff, and Music Note won the Ballerina off a 2 1/2-month layoff. Vineyard Haven and Music Note came into their races not only off layoffs but also off lackluster performances as the favorite.
A steady series of works for each (a workout every week for the past six weeks like clockwork) had them primed for peak performances on Saturday, and two firsts and a second is not a bad day at the office for bin Suroor.
When Birdstone won the 2004 Travers under an ominous sky, Blood Horse writer Steve Haskin walked with Nick Zito to the winner's circle and told the Racing Hall of Fame trainer, "That was the greatest training job I ever saw."
Zito trained Birdstone up to the Travers off his upset win over Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes 2 1/2 months earlier. While Tim Ice has a long way to go before joining Zito's pantheon, his conditioning of Birdstone's son, Summer Bird, to win this year's Travers was no less spectacular.
Ice pointed to the Travers immediately following the Belmont as his goal for Summer Bird. The summer is rich with lucrative spots for three-year-old males, but Ice chose the Haskell (the $50,000 bonus probably didn't hurt), and Summer Bird ran a credible second to Rachel Alexandra despite being a bit closer to the pace.
Summer Bird used a similar trip to win the Travers, and the whole thing had the feel of the trainer calling his shot 2 1/2 months ago.
If Ice called his shot for winning the Travers after pointing to that race following the Belmont, then Ian Wilkes called a grand slam by saying he would target the King's Bishop for Capt. Candyman Can following that Candy Ride colt's win in the Bay Shore Stakes in April at Aqueduct.
Wilkes never missed a beat with Capt. Candyman Can, who ran into a buzzsaw when second to Quality Road in the Amsterdam Stakes. It doesn't sound like Capt. Candyman Can missed a step of training or an oat in his feed tub since Wilkes mentioned the King's Bishop 4 1/2 months ago and adding the Grade 1 to his colt's resume adds millions to his value as a stallion prospect.
The lesson I take from this is that training regimans are important. When pointing for a specific race against graded stakes talent, every day counts. Sure, things like form, pace, and class are always important, but trainer patterns are an essential part of the handicapping puzzle, and kudos to bin Suoor, Ice, and Wilkes for putting it all together on Saturday.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Even odds are worth discussing
It's not that I don't think the morning line odds maker at each track doesn't do a good job, it's more that I know s/he works within certain constraints. On the track's morning line, you'll rarely see a horse above 20- or 30-to-1 even though a particular horse is likely to be in the 40- to 60-to-1 range. A morning line of 50-to-1 usually means 80- or 90-to-1 on the toteboard is likely.
On the other end of the spectrum, you very rarely see a horse who will clearly be 1- or 2-to-5 assigned such a low morning line. 4-to-5 is as low as morning line makers typically go except in the most obvious of circumstances and even then you still only see 2-to-5 rather than 1-to-5.
Again, this is nothing against the morning line odds maker. Tracks want lines that give the appearance of a competitive race.
Most of what I've read intimates that the Travers Stakes will be a competitive race with Quality Road the obvious favorite but Charitable Man, Kensei, Mine That Bird, and Summer Bird all taking decent action and then Hold Me Back and Our Edge as longshots despite being the only entrants conditioned by Racing Hall of Fame trainers.
Using a somewhat crude composite of opinions from my office as well as from the DRF Steves (Crist and Davidowicz), it looks as if people think Quality Road will be in the 2-to-1 range and maybe even as high as 5-to-2.
I don't see any way Quality Road pays more than $6 to win if he reaches the winner's circle and even money or 6-to-5 even seems possible to me, though that would likely overinflate the odds on the others.
If Quality Road were 6-to-5 then that second tier of three-year-olds would all have to be in the 5-to-1 range, which isn't impossible, but that in turn inflates the Hall of Fame trainers' horses odds into the 25-to-1 range, which seems less likely.
If we move Quality Road to 3-to-2 then that second tier can be 9-to-2 or 5-to-1 with the Hall of Fame trainers' duo in the high teens. Win betting on these big races has been tricky in recent years. It just doesn't seem like Joe Public wants to let any horse go for any sort of price. Given the Mott and Zito factor on the longshots, that will certainly help the price on at least a couple of the other contenders.
In the end, I just don't expect that overlay to come on Quality Road, and I plan to bet against him in all pools.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Since OJ had isotoners
Friday, August 21, 2009
In defense of Jackson and owners everywhere
Of course, the impetus for this discussion is Rachel Alexandra and the backlash against her majority owner, Jess Jackson, for playing coy about her next start.
Claire Novak wrote to great fanfare on ESPN.com that Jackson is not a sportsman because he has not disclosed Rachel Alexandra's next start as if he knows. There are four races still on the table all with vastly different conditions: The Shadwell Travers Stakes on August 29, the Personal Ensign Stakes on August 30, the Woodward Stakes (G1) on September 5, and the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) on September 7.
The Travers or Personal Ensign would mark Rachel Alexandra's first start beyond 1 3/16 miles. The Personal Ensign (females) or Woodward (males) would mark her first start against older horses. The Pennsylvania Derby would require shipping and is only a Grade 2, but it is worth more than either the Personal Ensign or Woodward.
Some have lamented that neither Jackson nor trainer Steve Asmussen publicly stated that Rachel Alexandra would not enter the Alabama Stakes, but her workout pattern clearly indicated that she would not be racing this week. For Asmussen, an easy work back followed by a bullet means a race is at least another week away. John Scheinman of the NYRA press office and trainer Mark Hennig both noticed that, so it's not like deciphering Asmussen's moves required possession of the Rosetta Stone or an advanced degree in reading tea leaves.
So Jackson said he'll make an announcement after Rachel Alexandra works early next week. Apparently this rubs people the wrong way. What is wrong with waiting until after her next workout to decide where to race a horse worth $10-million who is in the midst of what might end up being the greatest season by a three-year-old filly in the history of the North American Turf?
I defy anyone--Turf writer, casual fan, hardcore gambler, racetrack executive, etc.--to come up with one reason why Jackson is selfish for telling the media upfront, "no decision until after her workout." Can you imagine the din if he said today, "We're going to the Pennsylvania Derby" only to change his mind and go to the Travers because of the way she worked next week?
Also, this idea that owners, who stereotypically are wealthy individuals, should be embarrassed to make money off their horse racing exploits has to end.
Claire sarcastically called Jackson "real classy" for wishing that the races available to him had higher purses.
I'll stop short of nominating him as chairman of the St. Vincent de Paul society, but Jackson is a smart businessman. I say that not because it's smart to squeeze an extra $100,000 out of NYRA or Greenwood Racing (which owns Philadelphia Park) but because he knows his filly running will make money not only for himself but also for the track staging the race and the network televising it. Him wanting a cut of that by virtue of a higher purse is completely in bounds.
Jackson took an eight-figure gamble that Rachel Alexandra could win the Preakness Stakes on two weeks rest. He did the right thing (despite arguments to the contrary from some of my colleagues in the press) by skipping the Belmont Stakes. He ran her against males again at her sixth different track in as many starts, and her next start will mark her seventh unique surface this year.
There is no other owner in North America as sporting.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
I'm due
Of course, not all of them kick. Some point and laugh behind the people doing the kicking.
If you're lucky enough to have a friend like Nelson Muntz, he does both!
I was the proverbial kicking bag on Wednesday afternoon after another abominable day of handicapping the races at Saratoga Race Course. I guess I could put that in a positive light and say it was a fantastic day of picking losers.
I'm still without a winner in the Huddie contest, and I've put the brakes on my Saratoga betting because I want to make sure I'm fully loaded for Keeneland and Breeders' Cup, two events at which I've typically done well.
Still, I'm in the information business, so I can't let a little losing streak get me down. Besides, if you know my information is bad then that's good for you because you can then toss my selections with impunity.
So, here's my tick sheet for Thursday at Saratoga. I call it the tick sheet because you can tick off the horses I pick from the win slot. There's a double carryover in the pick six, and I've put together a ~$2,000 ticket that I won't be playing.
Update after scratches: Two of my "A" horses scratched, so if I were playing the pick six, I could do it for a relatively cheap $864 by going 2, 3, 4, 7 with 1, 2, 6 with 4 with 2, 5, 6 with 4, 6, 8 with 5, 7, 8, 9
Update after scratches: I missed a scratch in the opening leg (#3), so I have just a mythical $648 play. I'm hoping for a good 4/6 showing because then I won't feel bad for not playing but it'll be good enough to make me think maybe I'm starting to see the races better. Through the first four races, I've had two winners on top. However, one of those was 4-to-5, and I was nowhere in the two I missed.
Race 1: Jump-jump (a.k.a. might as well jump). Given the class (N2L or maiden before June 1, 2008) I'd prefer a more novice jumper in here who has shown the ability to win versus an older horse who has toiled in maiden and allowance conditions. So, #2 You the Man and #12 Left Unsaid are the obvious choices here. #1 Orebanks looked good against straight three-year-olds, but these waters are deeper. Still, he gets in for 139, will save ground, and the connections are capable.
Race 2: Uninspiring lot here, which explains the tag at a young age. Since I know nothing, I'm required to take #4 Mywifenosevrything. Normally I wouldn't slight the misses on a hunch bet like that, but Nick Zito is her favorite trainer, so she's on board. This would be my spread leg in pick N wagers, though with #s 1, 3, 5, 6 also all in the mix.
Race 3: I'll take a speed horse in here and a closer and hope one of them gets home first. #2 Trainee switches back to dirt. He'll be way out of it, but #s 4 & 5 will be gunning on the front end, and that could set up well for the deuce. #6 Quisom isn't the speed of the speed, but he has enough early foot to stay in touch with the leaders and to get first run turning for home. I'm not a huge fan of horses trying a new surface after 16 career starts, but #5 Lookalike merits some respect given that he'll be able to handle the distance, and he worked well over the Oklahoma on Saturday.
Race 4: I was surprised just now to look at the morning line and see that #5 Perfect Officer is favored. He's my top pick in here as the most likely winner, but #s 4 & 7 both could offer value in their turf debuts. #2 Wall Street Wonder and #8 Affirmatif both look to be overplayed here.
Race 5: Start of the pick six and not the most impossible race despite being a 2YO $50k claimer for NYBs. #s 2 & 3 have good first-out pedigrees for connections capable of firing. #4 Rogue's Jewel drops from NYB MSW after a wide trip on sloppy track. #7 Bobbi O. is worth some coverage given the fast works but the pedigree doesn't have me tingling.
Race 6: Interesting jockey situation on #s 1 & 2, as the rail picks up Dominguez while the deuce gets Leparoux. Both have to be respected on the drop, particularly the two stretching out. #6 Dukinfield also has the look of an "A" given a similar drop to the aforementioned pair plus his company lines are fantastic.
Race 7: I love #7 Most Happy Fella in here. The pedigree wins early and it wins on grass. Yeah, that debut was a dream trip and the second start was very uninspiring, but he will be capable going two turns on the grass. #4 Smooth Transition looks like another that should handle the stretch out nicely. I can't see past those two.
Race 8: Another MSW for NYBs on the turf. Horray! #6 Patronus Charm looks to have some upside with Castellano taking over for Arroyo following a decent Spa bow. #s 2 & 5 will be favored, and I wouldn't leave them off the P6, but I wouldn't mind betting against them in other pools either.
Race 9: I could make a case for everyone in here, but you really can't play them all (usually), and the case I can make against some of them is enough that I've comfortably narroed this down to three horses. #4 Flatter Than Me was a length behind Backtalk in the Bashford Manor when Albarado may have moved too early. I think he works out a good trip in here. #6 D'Funnybone comes out of a Calder stake, which didn't work out so well for Dashing Debby i the Adirondack, but I can't ignore this one's speed and the switch to Dutrow. #8 Tiny Woods attracts Smith for the ride. Not sure why Baffert wouldn't want to run this one at Del Mar given the win already, but the breeding should work on dirt and the owner might want some exSPAsure.
Race 10: My bet of the day is #7 Flying Sappho, who clearly has the best turf sprint form in the field, and as long as Rice is saddling a turf sprinter you'll usually get a price on your pick. #10 Bella Cherokee has outside speed and Samyn and should also offer value.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Laugh track
Oh sure, there'd be opportunities for the stereotypical glue jokes as well as for poking fun at jockeys' diminutive stature, but it's all been done and usually not very well (everyone assumes I love The Simpsons episode "Saddlesore Galactica," but I find the humor trite and cliche).
I'm no screenwriter (some might question the need for the word "screen" to precede "writer," but that's a topic for another day), but I do have an idea for a variety show-type skit involving handicapping a race that makes me LOL at least.
First, a hat tip to David Grening's National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes preview for giving me the idea.
Four horse players are standing around a TV at an OTB discussing the merits of the upcoming feature, a 1 1/16-mile stakes for three-year-olds on the turf.
#1: "Who do you guys like?"
#2: "I don't know. I could make a case for any horse."
#3: "It's a tough race."
#4: "Well, you can't bet the favorite."
#1: "Well, I need to bet someone."
#2: "Speed has been playing well on the turf."
#3: "Yeah, but there's a lot of speed."
#4: "There's a lot of closers, too."
#1: "Maybe I'll just pass on the race."
#2: "When in doubt, sit it out."
#3: "No, no! Have a hunch, bet a bunch!"
#4: "Yeah, there's gotta be some angle in here."
#1: "Well, it's a turf race at Saratoga. Maybe I'll just bet Bill Mott."
#2: "There you go. When in doubt, work it out."
#3: "Mott, huh? He's having a good meet."
#4: "Yeah, but guys, there are two Mott horses in this race."
At this point a wide angle shot show all four guys. #2 faints while a wet spot forms around #3's crotch as he dances around frantically doing the "I'm peeing my pants" dance.
Then we begin a slow zoom in on #1. First his jaw drops to the floor then his whole body drops to the floor. He begins circling the floor in a fetal position like a dog chasing his tail. He's gone dilarious, and he's babbling "woob woob woob woob woob" as he begins his descent into total insanity.
As we fade back out, #4 goes to place a bet.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Turn around needed
One of the best uses of my wit growing up occurred at my after prom party. I'm not happy about peaking at 17, but at least I peaked, right? Some people never reach their full potential.
Anyway, our party was set up as some sort of Vegas night motif. Three happy couples were playing blackjack when a classmate's father came up behind us and surveyed the landscape. Once we were paying attention to him he said, "So, who's the big loser here."
"Well, it appears you are," I said.
Rip-roarious laughter ensued, as the dad just smirked, shook his head, walked away, and commented that I wouldn't be receiving any extra chips that night.
I tell this story because now I'm the loser, and I feel I need to exorcise some demons. I'm down 79% at Saratoga, and you don't need to be a mathegenius to know that I'm not even close to beating the takeout let alone the game. I haven't picked a winner in the Huddie contest. I'm 16-0-2-2 through the first four-ninths of the meet. That's not getting it done no matter how you slice it.
So, maybe today will be the day things turn around. I have a college friend visiting for brunch, and I think #4 Deputy's Citizen is live in today's eighth race, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf. Deputy Citizen ran well in her debut when in for a tag back in April. Dominguez returns, and the hot Billy Badgett trains. Her last work on the turf was snappy, and showing a little bit of speed wouldn't be so bad given the way the course has been playing (sans the Sword Dancer). 10-to-1 morning is more than fair.
To quote Jack from Sideways, "Let's ratchet this up a notch."
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Redo the Rereadthefootnotes footnotes
I made the mistake of singling Rereadthefootnotes in the pick four on a very small play trying to turn 17-to-20 into at least 2-to-1. I coasted through the first two legs, albeit with short prices, but the ticket became worthless in the amount of time it took jockey Alan Garcia to pull Rereadthefootnotes out of the race around the eighth pole.
Except he didn't pull up Rereadthefootnotes, and the horse managed to regroup and save third by a head over Benlayla. Garcia apparently struggled with the Rereadthefootnotes trying to get it to change leads.
Multitude and his backers benefited most from Rereadthefootnotes' sudden deceleration. The Fusaichi Pegasus gelding had tracked Rereadthefootnotes throughout the whole race, and the pair appeared headed for a protracted duel through the stretch, but when Garcia hit the brakes, Multitude kept going and won by seven easy lengths. Overextended overtook Rereadthefootnotes to finish second and complete a 57-to-1 exacta--second choice with fifth choice in the field of eight.
The comments in the chart on the race say, "Multitude pressed the pace from outside, opened clear advantage in midstretch and drew off late. Overextended trailed after being pinched back at the start, moved between horses on the turn and closed late to gain the place. Rereadthefootnotes dueled along the rail for a half and weakened."
First, the note on Multitude makes it sound like he dueled his foe into submission before drawing off to win like Secretariat. Second, the note on Rereadthefootnotes makes no mention that jockey did everything but take his mount out of the race. The fact that Rereadthefootnotes was able to save third is a testament to his grittiness (yes, even in statebred N2X/$25k company). The note on Overextended makes it sound like he overcame Rereadthefootnotes.
This chart underscores the importance of watching races live, checking replays, and keeping notes.
I don't want the above to come off as sour grapes since I singled Rereadthefootnotes because just as the chart callers left something off in footnoting the race, so, too, did I make a mistake in betting on Rereadthefootnotes at odds on.
Here's a horse who runs a big number in the slop in his first race in nine months, then gets seven weeks off before showing up at odds on while figuring to face pace pressure. This was definitely a horse to play against at that price, and the winner was worth every penny at 16-to-5.
We'll get'em next time, though, armed with information that most people won't find in the program, but I again, I suspect the value will be in betting against Multitude versus betting on Rereadthefootnotes.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Lanzman lashes out at IEAH by naming I Want Revenge's half brother Dontsellmetofelons
Some owners use names as a sort of brand. Claiborne typically uses one-word names (e.g. Arch); Ken Ramsey names his horses after family members (e.g. Nolan's Cat); Mike Pegram often pays tribute to friends (e.g. Icecoldbeeratreds); Scot Waterman, D.V.M., often references Seinfeld (e.g. Summer of George).
One popular motif in the aftermath of the Governor Eliot Spitzer scandal was to name horses after his involvement with a busted prostitution ring. Prominent New York Republican Marylou Whitney got in on the act by naming horses Ninth Client and Luv Gov, the latter of which brought some notoriety to the Triple Crown season by starting in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
David Lanzman is the latest to make a political statement with his horses after naming his two-year-old colt by Thunder Gulch out of Roy mare Meguial (Arg) Dontsellmetofelons. The colt, who is a half brother to Lanzman's I Want Revenge, is an obvious allusion to the legal troubles Lanzman has had with IEAH Stables, which bought a share in I Want Revenge before the Kentucky Derby. I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race, and both parties are suing each other for various alleged transgressions (thank you anonymous commenter for the proper edit here).
Dontsellmetofelons has yet to record a published workout, but he is at Del Mar this summer, which hints that he could run at some point this fall. Lanzman originally named the Thunder Gulch colt I Want Noise; owners can change the name of a horse before s/he starts in a race.
Special thanks to @Bloodstock for bringing this to my attention.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Saturday late P4 at Saratoga
#8 Maram will get a lot of looks in here, but I'm willing to play against her on the main ticket given the layoff and likely short price. My "A" selections here are #3 Striking Dancer and #4 Complicity. McPeek has been high on Striking Dancer since the fall at Churchill where she won her maiden by 5 over two repeat winners and just missed in a stake to the highly regarded War Tigress. Like Maram, there's a layoff here too, but it's not as long and the workouts are super steady. Complicity will likely get overlooked coming from Indiana Downs, but the one-two horses in that $112k stake are both legit. Even with the decent stakes try last out, I have some class concerns given the Edgewood disaster, but she's just too quick to let go at the likely price.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Two-year-olds on Friday at the Spa
Monday, August 3, 2009
OFF TOPIC: Your humble scribe does the Laundry
I take a deep breath as I prepare to cross the threshold at this hallowed ground. I'm as nervous as I was on my wedding day and still not believing I'm actually where I am. It's a surreal feeling I imagine goes through the souls of those approaching St. Peter at the pearly gates. Some people have great confidence, but I sometimes don't. I truly wonder if I am worthy of this experience.
The staff does its best to make us feel at ease. The maitre d is warm and welcoming, and our table captain, Ruben, wants us to know that he is the nervous one since we are his guests; he wants us to have a great time. The sommelier offers us a champagne to celebrate our arrival at one of the world's best restaurants. We accept. I'm more interested in the alcohol calming my nerves than I am in a celebratory toast, but even with tense muscles and an increased heartbeat I am able to enjoy the bubbly. We're off and running, but slow and steady wins this race; we have nine courses and four hours to go.
The menu unfolds like a culinary rube goldberg machine with exotic ingredients coming together to produce brilliant plates as each course builds on the last to produce a contented diner.
The menu was a perfect mix of stereotypical high-end cuisine (e.g. caviar, foie gras,) that I otherwise rarely get to try as well as familiar favorites (e.g. tuna, lobster, and lamb ribeye) done to absolute perfection. It was fun just to have caviar let alone how delicious it was (with "Sabayon" of pearl tapioca and poached Island Creek Oysters). On the other hand, I've had tuna and lobster before but never like this. The tuna was sauteed, and the texture of it was like nothing I've ever experienced—not quite crunchy on the outside but a tough enough exterior that required me to bite through it in order for the meat of the fish to reach my tongue where it just sat diffusing its gentle fresh flavor.
One of the most fun parts about the experience was watching the carefully choreographed ballet of the service. Nonverbal cues made up the language of the highly trained and crisp waitstaff as they anticipated (and met) our every need.
Not that The French Laundry owed us anything or needed to do anything beyond serve us a world class meal to make our night, but Ruben and General Manager Nicolas Fanucci managed to deliver a pair of experiences that pushed the evening into transcendence.
Dessert began with course eight, (honeydew melon sorbet served with compressed watermelon and basil "nuage" [basil foam]). When one of the servers came to inquire about coffee with our dessert, I asked if it would be possible to try Chef Keller's world famous coffee and doughnuts during one of the dessert courses. The server went to Ruben who informed us that typically guests should order c&d before the meal, but that he would see what he could do. My hopes weren't high to begin with after that exchange, and they continued to drop as both dessert courses passed with no mention of our request.
A server cleared our table after we finished our ninth course, but the meal did not appear to be over when another place setting was put before us. Hopes rose like the tide as we imagined this meant that coffee and doughnuts were on their way, and we were correct. Seeing that iconic dessert placed before us was the perfect close to the meal. As high end as some of the cuisine was, it was comforting to know that Keller and his staff feel just as much at home serving their guests doughnuts at the end of the day.
Thanks to Nicolas, our departure from the restaurant included a detour to the kitchen where new chef de cuisine Tim Hollingsworth met with us briefly and signed our menus.
Of course the worst part about the meal was when it concluded, but that's actually the great thing about an experience such as dining at The French Laundry: the experience is never really over. My friends and I will be talking about this until the day we die, and as I replay the evening in my head over and over and over again, I keep finding new things to muse over. Just as energy never dies, great experiences become memories and stories.
Thank you for letting me share mine with you.