Permanent Breeders' Cup site odds (15% takeout)

Breeders' Cup Ltd. could announce a permanent site for its World Championships program as early as for the 2011 event, sparking rampant speculation as to what the site could be.

Before getting into what that site should be, I want to applaud the Breeders' Cup for moving in this direction regardless of what the site ends up being. As a Turf writer who travels to the Breeders' Cup each year, I would certainly miss dining at faraway locations and talking horses with locals at various watering holes, but the trade-off from a business standpoint seems worth it.

Even if an out-of-the-way place such as Sam Houston Race Park were chosen, the benefits of Houston knowing it can count on the event each year would be huge. Corporate sponsorships both on the local and national level would increase, the track could retrofit its property to adapt to the Breeders' Cup needs.

The Breeders' Cup has staged its event at ten locations in its 26-year history and each of those locations has pros and cons. A permanent location would allow the Breeders' Cup and the location to focus on the pros and ditch the cons on a long-term basis.

As for who could possibly be a permanent host, I've come up with 17 entities for a mythical Breeders' Cup Derby with a 15% takeout. Italics indicate a facility that could conduct night racing.

Arlington Park, 100-to-1
Belmont Park, 10-to-1 (from 7-to-1)
Calder Race Course, 250-to-1 (from 200-to-1)
Churchill Downs, 1-to-2 (from 2-to-5)
Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, 200-to-1 (from 100-to-1)
Fair Grounds Race Course, 200-to-1 (from 150-to-1)
Gulfstream Park, 150-to-1 (from 100-to-1)
Hialeah Park, 50-to-1 (from 25-to-1)
Hollywood Park, 250-to-1 (from 200-to-1)
Keeneland Race Course, 5-to-1 (from 20-to-1)
Lone Star Park, 200-to-1
NJSEA track, 150-to-1 (from 100-to-1)
other NYRA, 200-to-1
Sam Houston Race Park, 250-to-1 (from 200-to-1)
Santa Anita Park, 6-to-1
Woodbine, 150-to-1
ALL OTHERS, 597-to-1 (from 415-to-1)

Odds updated at 4:52 p.m. EST on December 15 to reflect action on Keeneland Race Course.

Despite initial communication with the three favorites--Belmont, Churchill, and Santa Anita--indicating that Breeders' Cup had only approached Santa Anita about the idea, I just have to make Churchill Downs the overwhelming favorite because it rates high on nearly any metric you could want to use.

• It's capacity is among the highest. I'd say Belmont handles big crowds the best, but the big crowds don't show up to Big Sandy unless there's a Triple Crown on the line. Churchill routinely gets higher attendance and higher handle for its Breeders' Cup.
• Speaking of attendance, Churchill already has a dedicated following of ticket holders who own personal seat licenses, and I don't know of any reason why PSLs couldn't be structured to include the Breeders' Cup.
• More people involved in the horse industry would not have to travel to the event. Yes, California, New York, Florida, Maryland, Pennsylvania etc. all have vibrant racing and breeding communities, but Kentucky is--at the very least--the North American center of the industry.
• Churchill Downs has lights. Breeders' Cup has tossed around the idea of conducting some races at night going back to 2007 when it considered running the inaugural Championship Friday races at Meadowlands. That never really went anywhere for that year, but the idea is bound to go somewhere in the coming years.

Santa Anita and Belmont are question marks in part because of geographic location. Churchill favors the East Coast a bit since it's in the Midwest, but it's certainly more neutral in that regard than any coastal location. Santa Anita (or any California facility) has the added question mark of a synthetic surface.

Keeneland is definitely interested in having the event, but I don't know that it's interested in having it permanently. Still, its president, Nick Nicholson, did travel to this year's event as the guest of Oak Tree Association President Sherwood Chillingworth.

"If we're going to have one of these I better figure out how it works," Nicholson said in October.

Hialeah I put on here because a lot of people really want to see it happen, but I just don't think it's in the cards. Still, I'd take your money if you want to bet on it.

All the others are longshots for sundry reasons. Sam Houston is the longshot that's most interesting to me because it's made a pitch for the event, is in a major market, and would probably make permanent improvements for what amounts to a one-week-a-year event.

If a permanent site is to help the Breeders' Cup achieve other goals such as more participation from the best horses--domestically and abroad--then Churchill is the site that makes the most sense to me.