Eclipse Award chances

Per usual, the Breeders' Cup World Championships is likely to decide most of this year's equine Eclipse Awards, though one category is already sealed and some are closer than others.

Two-year-old male: The Breeders' Cup will decide this. If any of the year's previous graded stakes winners win then he is the champion.

Two-year-old filly: The Breeders' Cup will decide this. If any of the year's previous graded stakes winners win then she is the champion. If chaos occurs, then Hot Dixie Chick might get some attention.

Three-year-old male: Sea The Stars is getting some discussion as a possible Horse of the Year candidate with a Classic win, so that would put him in the three-year-old picture as well. Still, Summer Bird won a classic and has two Grade 1 wins at 1 1/4 miles, including one against older males. Granted, that pales in comparison to what Sea The Stars did last year, but Summer Bird deserves to be rewarded for that campaign, and if a filly doesn't show up in the Haskell, then maybe he adds a G1 at 1 1 /8 miles as well. So Sea The Stars makes it a conversation, but for me this one is over.

Three-year-old female: Rachel Alexandra

Older male: This category is in complete disarray. Macho Again is the only older male with multiple Grade 2 (or better) stakes wins on conventional dirt. If any older male who has won a main track graded stakes this year wins the Classic, then he gets the nod. Einstein has won two Grade 1s but none on dirt. Still, it'd be hard to deny Einstein with a good Classic showing. Gio Ponti could win older male and turf male championships with a Classic win.

Older female: Zenyatta can clinch this by running in the Classic, as I don't think voters would penalize her for running in that race even if Music Note were to win the Ladies' Classic. If Zenyatta loses to Music Note in the Ladies' Classic then she loses the streak and the championship. I just see very little to gain by going in the Ladies' Classic given what she has done this year to date.

Turf male: Gio Ponti has done enough, but if he were to win the Classic, then voters might give him the older male championship and the turf male award to whomever wins the Breeders' Cup Turf (especially if it's Presious Passion or Conduit), but really, if I think Summer Bird has done enough to earn the three-year-old male Eclipse even in the face of Sea The Stars, then surely Gio Ponti has done enough to win the Turf male Eclipse.

Turf female: If Dar Re Mi, Forever Together, or Magical Fantasy wins the F&M Turf then she would get the championship. If none of them win, then Goldikova could get the honors with a Mile win. If none of those four win, then the door would be open for Diamondrella to win with a Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint win (against males).

Male sprinter: This comes down to the Breeders' Cup. If Zensational or a complete bomb wins, then Zensational is the champion. If one of the year's previous Grade 1 winners wins the Sprint, then he would get the championship even over Zensational/

Female sprinter: A win from Indian Blessing, Informed Decision, or Venutra seals this category for any of them.

Horse of the Year: Rachel Alexandra controls this award and since only a Classic win by Gio Ponti, Sea The Stars, and Zenyatta even makes it a conversation, I won't address it here.

Overall: What occurred to me when considering all this is how the synthetic surface somewhat dulls this year's Breeders' Cup. If Sea The Stars beats our best on dirt, then I'm much more inclined to vote for him in a category than if it happens on Pro Ride. I want to see him here, and I'm sure part of the selling point is a chance at year-end honors here, but it just doesn't seem fair to Summer Bird.