I have voted for the Eclipse Awards the past seven years dating back to 2002 and have a perfect record in the Horse of the Year category. That is, the horse who I voted for has taken home the hardware. This just means that everyone else has gotten it right.
The Breeders' Cup decided the outcome each of those years except last year when Curlin's Breeders' Cup run was just gravy on top of a campaign that already included wins in the Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster Handicap, Woodward Stakes, and Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Even in years when the winner did not race in the Breeders' Cup (Mineshaft in 2003), the so-called World Championships helped seal the fate of that year's Horse of the Year. Had Medaglia d'Oro or Funny Cide won the 2003 Classic then either would have been Horse of the Year over Mineshaft.
Regardless, the Horse of the Year decision came down to October or November races. Those months could still settle divisional championships this year, but Horse of the Year will not be a part of the conversation if Rachel Alexandra wins the Woodward Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course because that honor will be as fait accompli as her champion three-year-old honor is.
That said, the Woodward is no gimme. She's facing three Grade 1 winners, two of whom earned that black type at the Woodward distance against open company. The field also includes three Grade or Group 2 winners and is deeper and more talented than what we saw in the Travers Stakes last week—a race that included two Grade 1 winners (neither at the Travers distance and neither against open company) and two two Grade 2 winners.
Barring a Triple Crown winner, Labor Day weekend is about as early as I can imagine a horse clinching a Horse of the Year title.
If she loses, then Horse of the Year is no gimme for Rachel Alexandra. Going into this weekend, there are nine horses I still rate as having a chance of winning Horse of the Year. Rachel Alexandra we've already discussed. Here are the others who have a shot, ranked in order of probability.
Bullsbay or Macho Again: If either wins the Woodward and then adds the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic then he would get my vote. It would just be too tough to deny a four-time Grade 1 winner against open company including two wins at 1 1/4 miles.
Rail Trip or Einstein: Each ranks slightly below Bullsbay or Macho Again because Bullsbay or Macho Again would have the benefit of having beaten Rachel Alexandra in an open Grade 1 race. Still, if either wins the Pacific Classic and then wins out in the Breeders' Cup Classic either would have three Grade 1 wins against open company at 1 1/4 miles.
Gio Ponti: The plan right now is to go to the Breeders' Cup Turf, which takes him out of contention for Horse of the Year honors, but if his connections call an audible and decide to go for the Breeders' Cup Classic, then a win there would earn him Horse of the Year honors.
Zenyatta: She's not in the conversation right now especially given her connections' current plan to go to the Lady's Secret and then Ladies' Classic, but like Gio Ponti, if they decide to go for the Classic and she wins then Horse of the Year is hers with a Rachel Alexandra loss in the Woodward.
Mine That Bird or Summer Bird: The door is quickly closing on the three-year-old male champion also winning Horse of the Year, but if either Mine That Bird or Summer Bird win out then either could enter the Horse of the Year conversation. The problem for each is that Rachel Alexandra beat them on the track in Grade 1 races. They're extreme longshots.
Some think Rachel Alexandra has already sealed the deal, and she certainly holds all the cards. A loss by any of the above horses would hurt their chances for Horse of the Year a lot more than a loss by Rachel Alexandra would hurt her.
3 soothsayers: