One of my favorite exercises as a handicapper is to handicap the handicappers by assigning a morning line to notable races.
It's not that I don't think the morning line odds maker at each track doesn't do a good job, it's more that I know s/he works within certain constraints. On the track's morning line, you'll rarely see a horse above 20- or 30-to-1 even though a particular horse is likely to be in the 40- to 60-to-1 range. A morning line of 50-to-1 usually means 80- or 90-to-1 on the toteboard is likely.
On the other end of the spectrum, you very rarely see a horse who will clearly be 1- or 2-to-5 assigned such a low morning line. 4-to-5 is as low as morning line makers typically go except in the most obvious of circumstances and even then you still only see 2-to-5 rather than 1-to-5.
Again, this is nothing against the morning line odds maker. Tracks want lines that give the appearance of a competitive race.
Most of what I've read intimates that the Travers Stakes will be a competitive race with Quality Road the obvious favorite but Charitable Man, Kensei, Mine That Bird, and Summer Bird all taking decent action and then Hold Me Back and Our Edge as longshots despite being the only entrants conditioned by Racing Hall of Fame trainers.
Using a somewhat crude composite of opinions from my office as well as from the DRF Steves (Crist and Davidowicz), it looks as if people think Quality Road will be in the 2-to-1 range and maybe even as high as 5-to-2.
I don't see any way Quality Road pays more than $6 to win if he reaches the winner's circle and even money or 6-to-5 even seems possible to me, though that would likely overinflate the odds on the others.
If Quality Road were 6-to-5 then that second tier of three-year-olds would all have to be in the 5-to-1 range, which isn't impossible, but that in turn inflates the Hall of Fame trainers' horses odds into the 25-to-1 range, which seems less likely.
If we move Quality Road to 3-to-2 then that second tier can be 9-to-2 or 5-to-1 with the Hall of Fame trainers' duo in the high teens. Win betting on these big races has been tricky in recent years. It just doesn't seem like Joe Public wants to let any horse go for any sort of price. Given the Mott and Zito factor on the longshots, that will certainly help the price on at least a couple of the other contenders.
In the end, I just don't expect that overlay to come on Quality Road, and I plan to bet against him in all pools.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Somewhat agree.
I was surprised that Munnings was not the clear second choice in the Haskell. Summer Bird took more money than I expected. I expect the same will hold true here in that the classic race winners will both be a tad bit more underlaid than anticipated which could push QR above 2-1, but I agree that is the ceiling.
Don't think the public will bite much on Charitable Man having been burned enough against lesser to make me believe that he will be in 12-1 range while Kensei more like 6-1.
I expect the top 3 will probably be closer in the win pool than most think. Quality Road will be the favorite but not by much.
I really can't see the public letting Charitable man go as a $20 horse despite the no excuse losses at underlaid odds three out of four times this year.
Maybe 8-to-1. Kensei as a $14 horse isn't impossible, though I think the Jackson factor of running him here instead of Rachel plus a win over the track pushes him closer to 5-to-1.
Post a Comment