Monmouth pick five

I've laid off the ponies since Belmont Stakes day to give my wounds proper time to heal following a terrible Triple Crown season in which I completely whiffed on the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes and only salvaged a very small profit in the Preakness Stakes thanks to foolishly putting most of my eggs into the very chalky stakes pick four basket singling Rachel Alexandra.

Loyal readers of this space know that I can't resist a carryover in pools I normally would play anyway, and so it will go on Wednesday when I reload the TwinSpires.com account to take a run at the pick five carryover at Monmouth Park. With a $.50 minimum wager per combination, this is a great bet to make a big score with a well crafted ticket, and the carryover definitely sweetens the pot.

The weather forecast promises fast and firm conditions when the sequence kicks off at 2:33 p.m. EDT with race five, a $50,000 maiden claimer affair for three-year-old fillies. The race has seven entries, including three first-time starters. The debut runners don't interest me much, but certainly it will be worth watching the tote.

#2 Shimmering Tina looks like a clear "A" to me. She hasn't been well regarded in the win pool to date, but she's dropping in class again after losing by just 2 1/4 lengths to next-out (in a N1X allowance) winner Implicate. She'll have company on the front end, but I think she's the better horse. #4 Caught in Action is a solid "B" play on tickets, but I favor the deuce because A) I think she's the better horse and B) she'll be the better price. Still, it'll be tough to leave the four off altogether. She cost $100k as a yearling for solid connections. She debuted in April at Gulfstream and ran OK as the favorite, but the horse who beat her, Chargingtoomuch, has not flattered since with two unplaced performances at Monmouth since.

In race six, a 5 1/2-furlong turf affair for $40k-$50k claimers, I'm spreading like butter! #9 Mr. Silver looks fastest, but he seems to have issues reaching the wire first. There's speed in here, so he might finally be able to get the winning closing trip especially from the outside, but I wouldn't pin all my pick five hopes on that. #2 Earlswood Pete steps up in class a bit but retains Elvis off that win against $30k-$40k claimers at the track and distance. #4 Just Playin Around drops in class for this and looks to be a pace presence. #7 Cooper County ran some huge races at Tampa this spring before dueling in an Atlantic City Stakes and fading a bit in the lane. This class should be more to his liking.

Race 7 is at the Breeders' Cup Mile (at Monmouth) distance of 1 mile, 70 yards for $50k claimers or non winners of three other than types. DRF analyst Kenny Peck says that #4 Power Game could be a single, and while he certainly looks to be the most talented horse in the race with a sharpness edge to boot, the two layoff horses to his inside, #1 Barcola and #2 Pampered Sir, are capable of winning this if they're ready off the bench especially with the chance to be controlling speed from the inside.

Race 8 puts us back on the turf and sports the only single in the sequence in #10 Carson Hall, who hasn't run a bad race since moving to turf last summer at Monmouth. He comes into this as his third off the layoff after two good tries at Gulfstream and at Monmouth. Any improvement likely crushes these and even a return to his form this year lays over this bunch.

A $10k maiden claimer for males 3YO and up closes out the card and the pick five, and #2 Exchange the Limit and #4 Prayer Answered look to be best, but I worry about making it this far and only being alive to Mangalee and Maysonett in the bikes! My second tier in here is #1 Cross Check, who finally gets a fast main track (not counting the inner debut for a $25k tag at Aqueduct), #3 Oski Oski whose best races have come on turf but has some speed and keeps Santiago, and #7 Sky Ranger who has shown enough speed to be dangerous especially with the jockey change to Channing Hill.

Before scratches, it looks like I can caveman my As and Bs for $60, so that'll at least be my starting point (2, 4 with 2, 4, 7, 9 with 1, 2, 4 with 10 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7). I'll update with my actual tickets around 2:30.

1:45 p.m. update: In a rare twist of fate, scratches actually INCREASED the price of my caveman ticket!

In the seventh race (Leg C of the pick five), #4 Power Game scratched. Rather than go just two-deep in that race with a pair of layoff horses, I'm going to add #3 Glamour Guy and #5 Truth Rules to the ticket. I'm not five-deep in a six-horse race, but I don't really want to go two-deep with only layoff horses who could duel on the lead with those inside posts.

So, with about an hour to post, I'm pretty committed to playing a single caveman ticket 2x4x4x1x5 for $80.

2:20 p.m. update: The first flash of the tote for the first leg of the pick five, indicates first-time starters #s3 & 7 taking some early morning with the other firster, #6, dead on the board. Both a pick 3 and pick 4 end in this race and none of the firsters look to have taken any money in those pools, a telling sign considering none of the winners from races 2-4 paid more than 3-to-2. I'm sticking with #s 2 & 4 for the first leg.

4:45 p.m. update: I was actually out about two hours ago, but meetings and what not kept my mind off tanking in the first leg. I tanked in the last two legs as well, though, so not having the firster who took early money in the lid lifter of the sequence doesn't sting as much.

We'll get'em tomorrow with Birdie Birdie at Hollywood!