Belmont Stakes picks

It is impossible to ignore the confidence with which trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has exuded in Charitable Man in the days leading up to the Belmont Stakes, and although I'm not one to use trainer speak (McLaughlin "wouldn't trade places with anybody,") I certainly don't mind it when it backs up every handicapping approach I could possibly use in the race.

Charitable Man is fast enough, has the right pedigree, will get the right trip, is connected to the right people, and the sweetener in all this is that he won't be ridiculously overbet (even 5-to-2 is somewhat interesting).

The only other horse I would call a likely winner of the race is Mine That Bird, who just five weeks ago was a "fluke" winner of the Kentucky Derby but now is clearly the leader in the three-year-old male division. I could see him having some battles with Charitable Man down the line if they meet in, say, the Travers, but I expect the likely fresher Charitable Man to win this battle.

I just mentioned the two favorites as the most likely winners, so I'm shopping for value to key them with, and I'm picking Flying Private and Miner's Escape off the shelf. Flying Private interests me because it seems as if he wants to run. The Derby effort in the slop was very poor, but the Preakness effort showed signs of life. It's hard to see him making up the difference on Mine That Bird in here, but he could get a piece.

Miner's Escape is by Mineshaft, and I just have to think that sire's progeny are going to need time to come around, and it looks as if Miner's Escape is coming around. He'll be near the lead early, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him hanging around for a piece late, either.

I'm tossing Dunkirk from the top spot and will only use him defensively underneath not wanting to miss out on a Charitable Man-Dunkirk-Miner's Escape tri, but I agree with the idea that the Florida Derby was it for him for awhile.

Summer Bird is my most likely winner of a second tier of horses who will take action (a tier that also includes the Chocolate Candy and the aforementioned Dunkirk), but he was 13 lengths behind Mine That Bird in the Derby, and I don't see him making that up here even with the rest and jockey change. Hard to envision him not running his race (whereas I could see either Dunkirk or Chocolate Candy Xing), but I'll let him beat me in the one slot.

Strategy: Charitable Man on top keyed with Mine That Bird, Miner's Escape, and Flying Private. Pick N wagers using all four of those with a heavier press on Charitable Man.