Scenario bets

There are not many days when people can go to the track knowing that they have a chance at the score of a lifetime.

Because of its competitive 20-horse field, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) provides that opportunity every year, including payouts in excess of 29,000-to-1 on the superfecta in each of the past five years with a $864,253 payday in 2005.
A race fan does not have to be an expert handicapper to nail some of these payoffs. As with any gambling enterprise, some luck helps too.

Some people go by names, colors, or numbers. For someone looking to have a little more fun, Thoroughbred Times editors Pete Denk and Ed DeRosa have come up with the following scenario bets that could pay big at this year’s Derby.

West Coast dominance:
Pioneerof the Nile defeated has defeated five horses in this race. Two of those horses—I Want Revenge and Papa Clem—went on to win graded stakes. Play a tri with Pioneerof the Nile on top, I Want Revenge and Papa Clem in second, and Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in third.

A Cinderella story
General Quarters, claimed for $20,000 out of his career debut, makes up the one-horse stable of owner Thomas McCarthy. Although he will be a longshot, General Quarters overcame a wide trip to win the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), and he has a win at Churchill Downs. An across-the-board bet on General Quarters should pay well if he hits the top three. Supporters of General Quarters might also want to bet an exacta box with Musket Man, the horse General Quarters battled with all winter at Tampa Bay Downs who went on to win the Illinois Derby (G2).

Dubai dominance
The two Godolphin colts Regal Ransom and Desert Party are one of the mystery’s of this year’s field because they haven’t faced any of the American colts in 2009, essentially racing in a bubble. An all-Godolphin exacta box would pay big, as would any trifecta in which the Godolphin colts fill out two of the three spots. In the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) Godolphin ran 1-2 with 11-to-1 Tempera and 53-to-1 Imperial Gesture. The $2 exacta paid $768, and the $2 trifecta paid $3,823, and that was only a nine-horse field.

Fair proving Grounds
Friesan Fire dominated stakes races at Fair Grounds this year, winning the Le Comte Stakes (G3), Risen Star Stakes (G3), and Louisiana Derby (G2) by a combined 10 3/4 lengths. Friesan Fire beat Papa Clem in the latter race, and Papa Clem went on to win the Arkansas Derby. Bet this exacta straight.

Surface tension
Street Sense finished second in the 2007 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) before going on to win the Kentucky Derby. The synthetic record was not as good last year, and many are down on horses coming from that surface this year. A counterintuitive play of horses coming off synthetic preps could pay an overlaid price. Box Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back, Join in the Dance, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, and Pioneerof the Nile.