Preakness picks

There are two kinds of favorites: The kind you bet against and the kind you don't worry about betting because it's more beneficial to just sit back and enjoy the show.

Rachel Alexandra falls in the latter category, so I'm not going to try to beat her in the Preakness Stakes even though she'll likely be an underlay. Her Kentucky Oaks win was amazing not for the depth of the field she beat but for how she did it.

Two Racing Hall of Fame trainers and a Hall of Fame jockey said Friday morning that they would have entered her in the Derby and that she would have won. There's no reason to think she won't win the Preakness.

I'll take Papa Clem second hoping he gets a fast track and a clear run around the turn. Friesan Fire will rebound from his Derby disaster, but it won't be good enough to beat Rachel Alexandra.

As for how to bet the race (you knew I wouldn't really be only watching the race), I don't think Rachel Alexandra will be an underlay in the exotic pools. If she's 3-to-2 in the win pool, she'll probably be 5-to-2 or 3-to-1 on top in most of the exotics. D. Wayne Lukas said he'd bet $2,000 on her to win if she's 2-to-1 or better. I'm hoping to get live to her in a pick four and key her around longer prices in the Preakness. I expect those longer prices to be Papa Clem, General Quarters, Take the Point, and Terrain, but the board will tell that story.