Cat and mouse games

It looks as if all the time I put into handicapping where undefeated champion Zenyatta and Preaknes-Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra could face each other was a waste of time.

John Shirreffs, who trains Zenyatta for Jerry and Ann Moss, said that the plans for Zenyatta include only Southern California races restricted to females, culminating in a defense of her Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic crown.

Rachel Alexandra co-owner Jess Jackson, meanwhile, told Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal that if Rachel Alexandra races in the Breeders' Cup, then it would be in the Classic against males, and he would only race Rachel Alexandra "on plastic" (i.e. a synthetic surface) if she had nothing left to prove on dirt.

Unless Shirreffs changes his mind about shipping Zenyatta east or racing her against males in the Breeders' Cup, then that leaves the Lady's Secret Stakes (G1) during the Oak Tree Racing Association meet at Santa Anita Park as the most likely meeting place for the top two females in the land (going long on dirt or synthetic), even after Jackson's edict.

By October (when the Lady's Secret is run) Rachel Alexandra presumably could have already knocked off the best of her generation as well as older males. If the latter hadn't occurred, then that would leave the door open for the Jockey Club Gold Cup being an attractive option especially since Jackson has won the race (with Curlin) two years in a row. Still, more people would probably rather see the Zenyatta-Rachel Alexandra match-up even if it is on Pro-Ride than Rachel Alexandra take on Smooth Air in the JCGC.

With Curlin, Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen often talked about how the two-time Horse of the Year benefited from having experience on a particular surface, so if they're gung ho to face males in the Breeders' Cup Classic, then the Lady's Secret would give them a race on the track and a showdown with the leader of the older female division to boot.

As you can tell, this situation really fascinates me, and I know we're a misstep or a cough away from it being a moot point, but I really like the cat-and-mouse games owners and trainers play with each other (a separate but related soap opera is unfolding regarding the Belmont and who Borel will end up piloting).

I suggested on Twitter that maybe Shirreffs is just playing coy with the media and not wanting to play his hand in terms of where Zenyatta will race. Maybe he (and the Mosses) know that tracks will pony up big dough to attract Zenyatta, so naming the races in his backyard might add a sense of urgency for tracks in a position to attract the big mare (e.g., Delaware Park, Monmouth, and NYRA).

After all, they did enter (and ship) Zenyatta for a race on Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill, and scuttlebutt around the stable area during Derby week was that the Pacific Classic was a goal for Zenyatta this year.

The wildcards in the older female division are Music Note (returning finalist for champion three-year-old female) and Ventura, who could challenge Zenyatta going 1 1/16 miles in a race like the Hirsch or Lady's Secret.