Handicapping the options for a RA-Zen showdown

I can think of no bigger prospective event in Thoroughbred racing this year than a possible matchup between classic winner Rachel Alexandra and the undefeated champion Zenyatta. Just the mention of it sends racing fans into a tizzy comparable to Oprah's audience after getting a car.

I hesitate to call what Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta have together a rivalry because that word implies some sort of relationship.

Affirmed and Alydar, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer... they had rivalries. If we (racing fans, the industry) are lucky, then Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will race against each other once, but I can't see it happening before the Breeders' Cup World Championships unless some enterprising track really ups the ante to get them into the same race. If and when it does happen, I dare say it will be the most celebrated matchup since Sunday Silence and Easy Goer met in the 1989 Breeders' Cup at Gulfstream Park.

Jeff Lowe has a story in the May 30 edition of Thoroughbred Times detailing Monmouth's early marketing efforts to get both Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Kentucky Oaks-Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational Stakes on August 2. The owners and trainers of both horses (as well as the connections of the eventual Belmont winner) would receive $50,000 ($25,000 each for the owner and trainer) for running in the Haskell per the conditions of the race. I can't imagine the jockeying some tracks will do to make a Rachel Alexandra-Zenyatta showdown occur at their oval, but any facility with money is going to pull out all the stops for sure. Obviously, this eliminates a Magna track from playing host to the showdown, though none of their marquee facilities run in the summer or early fall anyway.

Monmouth last year put up big bucks (no whammies, stop) to attract dual classic winner Big Brown to the shore for his Breeders' Cup prep race, but it would take more than the $500,000 of that purse to attract these heavy hitters assuming they're both training in peak form come summer or early fall. With the Breeders' Cup again staging its races on a synthetic surface this year, any meeting between these two before November at Santa Anita would likely occur on conventional dirt, so that works in Monmouth's favor. The only other marquee meetings in August-October on dirt are Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course. Sure, places like Calder and Emerald and River Downs race on dirt, but I don't envision much chance that they could get these two stars even with a $2-million purse.

The Breeders' Cup is a wild card in this because its brass probably does not want these two to meet until the World Championships November 6-7 at Santa Anita. If Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta went toe to toe in the Beldame or Jockey Club Gold Cup or Personal Ensign or Ruffian or the Woodward (all on dirt at NYRA tracks) then that would certainly dull the anticipation of a matchup in a Breeders' Cup race. Even if they faced each other again in either the Ladies' Classic or the Classic, then there would be some camps who would put more stock into the earlier race because of it having been contested on dirt versus Pro Ride.

A match race is likely out of the question because of their difference in running styles. Rachel Alexandra would have a clear tactical advantage in a match race.

For the sake of the leaders in the three-year-old and older male divisions come Breeders' Cup, I hope that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta race in the Classic because Horse of the Year honors most definitely go through them. The clamor for Zenyatta to face boys this year has been silenced by the presence of Rachel Alexandra. Is there anyone out there who would rather see Zenyatta face Einstein and It's a Bird than Rachel Alexandra?

I just spent a lot of time writing about a matchup that I would say is no better than 50-50 even to occur. So much has to go right to keep these talented horses at their best all year, but I'm encouraged by the connections. I mean, surely the Mosses didn't bring Zenyatta back only to win the Milady again, and Jackson didn't spend many millions of dollars to pick off races restricted to three-year-old fillies by double digit lengths.