This year's Kentucky Derby proved to me that being a successul horseplayer isn't about picking winners. Yeah, it helps to be able to identify the most likely winner of the race, but it's not the most important part of the process.
On Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup days I manage a wagering syndicate in which friends invest into a larger wagering pool in the hopes that we'll hit big. It's worked out very well twice, broken even twice, and been a disaster twice, and one of those two disasters occured on yesterday's Derby card on which I lost everything. Coincindentally the other time I lost everything came in the sloppy 2007 Breeders' Cup at Monmouth.
The thing is, I wasn't that far off. My top pick, Pioneerof the Nile, finished second. Regal Ransom, whom I loved at the price, was in the mix early but faded to eighth. Horses I considered solid contenders at the price and used liberally with Pioneerof the Nile--Musket Man and Papa Clem--finished third and fourth, respectively.
I didn't use Mine That Bird at all except when I used "all," meaning a portion of a bet that includes every horse in the race. I didn't think he would win, and as former Thoroughbred Times intern Joe points out on his blog, I thought Mine That Bird's fair odds to win would be in the neighborhood of 400-to-1.
Here's the thing, though: I had $3,300 to bet on behalf of friends and family, and I let that psych me out.
Rather than cover my strongest opinions as much as possible, I was too concerned about being right and "having it." I didn't like Dunkirk on top yet played him first and second pretty strongly. I liked Friesan Fire even less yet played him in equal strength with Dunkirk. I let psychology dictate my bets rather than my handicapping. I didn't want one of those two horses, whom everyone seemed to like, to beat my group out of a nice score, but that kind of thinking ended up costing a nice score.
If I've said it once, I've said it a million times. Winning isn't about being right, it's about being right enough to make up for the times you're wrong. No, he didn't win, I was right enough about Pioneerof the Nile that I should have cashed on him finishing second given the fact that I had $3,300 with which to work.
I liked Pioneerof the Nile best and then there were ten other horses who wouldn't have shocked me if they won. Playing a trifecta singling Pioneerof the Nile with those ten in the second spot and ALL in the third spot would cost $170, so for $1,020 I could have boxed those different combinations and had the $20,750 trifecta. For $2,040 I could have done that bet with Regal Ransom, and that still would have left me with $1,260 for saver tickets trying to take advantage of other combinations.
The disappointing thing is that an opportunity like this only comes once a year. No other American race consistently offers this type of opportunity. I only hope my investors give me another chance next year.
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I threw out Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man and Papa Clem. So - there you have it. Yet because of your comments to me about the bad rides in NM - I stuck with Mine That Bird and Chocolate Candy (as well as Mr. not so Hot Stuff and Deserted Party - on purpose I wrote that). I completely see why You wouldn't use him - most people didn't so it's so understandable. That's one of the reasons he had such high odds - it was hard to talk yourself into him.
ReplyDeleteYou helped me talk myself into him. I cashed a nice across the board bet. But not exotics. Together we had the Exacta real easy - but not truly that easy.
I loved your tickets you came up with. I thought that any one of them - or with any luck more than that - we would hit.
It's not like you were off - AT ALL. It just didn't pay. That's why it's called gambling.
It was fun - and you handicapped well - however - it's also a 20 horse field - all with at least 1 unknown.
We'll try again - because that's what we do.